POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #1 – 2000 EDT – 6/03/22
At 1700 EDT, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1. As of 2000 EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 does not meet the criteria of being a tropical cyclone, due to lack of circulation around a low level center.
If and when this system becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be named Tropical Storm Alex and will be the first tropical storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. However this year is not unique, as in several years in the recent past, we have often seen a Tropical Depression and or a Tropical Storm form either right before or just right after the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The Atlantic Hurricane Season began yesterday on June 1st and will run through November 30th.
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later tonight or early Saturday, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high …90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER
SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…23.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO…ARTEMISA…LA HABANA…AND MAYABEQUE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:
“Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become better organized since the last advisory. What is passing for the center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean position along this trough. The aircraft did not find any tropical-storm-force winds during its mission. However, Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt winds are occurring in the convective cluster near western Cuba about 150 n mi east of the center. Based on this, the system has not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a 35-kt potential tropical cyclone. It should be noted that the initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are only occurring over a small area well east of the center.
While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It is still possible that there could be erratic motion due to center re-formation caused by convective bursts.
Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches the Florida Peninsula. However, it remains likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection and improved circulation for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.
The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days.”
SITUATION AND ACTIONS:
At the present time the following counties or portions of counties have a Tropical Storm Warning in effect: Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Inland Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota Counties.
At the present time there is a Flood Watch in effect for Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota Counties through Saturday evening.
At the present time, there have not been any requests for services from any of the ARES groups in the ten counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.
Note: The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section. Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.
All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to check their equipment, supplies, and complete any necessary personal preparations. All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:
Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022334.shtml?
Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/022052.shtml
Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/022057.shtml
Latest NWS Rusking Hurricane Local Statement: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KTBW.shtml
CONCLUSION
The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 will be issued following the 1700 EDT advisory unless conditions warrant an earlier issuance.
