WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN #22-04 – 2100 EDT – 6/03/22

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #1 – 2000 EDT – 6/03/22

At 1700 EDT, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1.  As of 2000 EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 does not meet the criteria of being a tropical cyclone, due to lack of circulation around a low level center.

If and when this system becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be named Tropical Storm Alex and will be the first tropical storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  However this year is not unique, as in several years in the recent past, we have often seen a Tropical Depression and or a Tropical Storm form either right before or just right after the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The Atlantic Hurricane Season began yesterday on June 1st and will run through November 30th.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and become a tropical storm later tonight or early Saturday, and some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida. Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high …90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…23.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO…ARTEMISA…LA HABANA…AND MAYABEQUE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become better organized since the last advisory. What is passing for the center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean position along this trough. The aircraft did not find any tropical-storm-force winds during its mission. However, Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt winds are occurring in the convective cluster near western Cuba about 150 n mi east of the center. Based on this, the system has not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a 35-kt potential tropical cyclone. It should be noted that the initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are only occurring over a small area well east of the center.

While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It is still possible that there could be erratic motion due to center re-formation caused by convective bursts.

Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches the Florida Peninsula. However, it remains likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection and improved circulation for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time the following counties or portions of counties have a Tropical Storm Warning in effect:  Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Inland Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota Counties.

At the present time there is a Flood Watch in effect for Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota Counties through Saturday evening.

At the present time, there have not been any requests for services from any of the ARES groups in the ten counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to check their equipment, supplies, and complete any necessary personal preparations.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022334.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/022052.shtml

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/022057.shtml

Latest NWS Rusking Hurricane Local Statement:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KTBW.shtml

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 will be issued following the 1700 EDT advisory unless conditions warrant an earlier issuance.

WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN #22-03 – 2100 EDT – 6/02/22

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE #1 – 2000 EDT – 6/02/22

At 1700 EDT, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1.  This is the remnants of a eastern Pacific hurricane that crossed Central American and are now emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula.

If and when this system becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be named Tropical Storm Alex and will be the first tropical storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  However this year is not unique, as in several years in the recent past, we have often seen a Tropical Depression and or a Tropical Storm form either right before or just right after the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  The Atlantic Hurricane Season began yesterday on June 1st and will run through November 30th.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system should move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or on Friday and a tropical storm late Friday or Friday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…21.5N 87.5W
ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI…805 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.

The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.

The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast. Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this system.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time the following counties or portions of counties have a Tropical Storm Watch in effect:  Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Inland Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota Counties.

At the present time, there have not been any requests for services from any of the ARES groups in the ten counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to check their equipment, supplies, and complete any necessary personal preparations.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022334.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/022052.shtml

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/022057.shtml

Latest NWS Rusking Hurricane Local Statement:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KTBW.shtml

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 will be issued following the 1700 EDT advisory unless conditions warrant an earlier issuance.

WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN #22-01 – 5/29/22 – 1925 EDT

SECTION ARES NET FOR MONDAY 5/30/22 CANCELLED

Due to the potential severe weather situation and the activation of a SKYWARN Net on the NI4CE Repeater, the Section ARES and Information Net on the NI4CE Repeater System was cancelled by the Net Manager, Sanford Wyatt KM4WXX for Monday May 30, 2022.  The net will resume normal operation on Monday June 6th, 2022 at 1930 hours.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-11

EAST PASCO AMATEUR RADIO SOCIETY HAMFEST FOR SPRING 2022 CHANGING DATES

On April 13, the East Pasco Amateur Radio Society (EPARS) announced that the East Pasco Amateur Radio Tailgate for Spring 2022 originally scheduled for Saturday May 7, 2022 has been rescheduled to Saturday May 28, 2022.  The reasons stated for the change was that the venue for the hamfest, Church Street Park, suddenly became unavailable for use by EPARS for the hamfest on the original scheduled date, shortly after EPARS obtained approval to use Church Street Park.

If anyone wants any further information about the EPARS Tailgate for Spring 2022, you may go to the EPARS website at http://eparsonline.org/

END OF PRESS RELEASE

WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-10

ED ALLEN WA4ISB BECOMES A SILENT KEY

Edwin “Ed” Allen WA4ISB, one of the founders of the NI4CE Repeater System, became a Silent Key on Saturday April 16, 2022, after a brief stay in hospice care.

First licensed as an amateur radio operator in the mid 1960’s, Ed was co-founder of the Sarasota Emergency Radio Club (SERC) in 1976, and continued to remain active with SERC.  In 2001, Ed helped to create the West Central Florida Group Inc. (WCFG), which today operates the NI4CE Repeater system.  Ed, with his various relationships in the broadcast radio industry, helped WCFG to find and secure the sites they use today for the various NI4CE repeaters.  Ed also served as trustee for the NI4CE Repeater System, until recently stepping down from that role to be succeeded by Matt Copeland NC4FD, the current trustee.

Even though Ed worked professionally as a certified broadcast engineer for decades, he never lost his passionate interest and pursuit of amateur radio.

In his professional carrier, Ed was a certified broadcast engineer for numerous AM and FM broadcast stations since the late 1960’s, and recently retired from Cox Radio Tampa Bay as Chief Engineer for over 20 years.

It was Ed’s stated wish that in lieu of flowers or similar tributes, donations should be made in Ed’s memory to the West Central Florida Group, Inc.  There will be a Celebration Of Life for Ed on Saturday, May 14th, 2022 from 1200 until 1400 at Ed’s home in Sarasota.  The address information and any other details about the Celebration of Life will be available on the West Central Florida Group website at https://ni4ce.org.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-09

THE 25th ANNUAL FLORIDA QSO PARTY SET FOR LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL

The Florida Contest Group recently announced the 25th Annual Florida QSO Party will be held on Saturday April 30, 2022 from 1600Z (Noon EDT) through 0159Z (9:59 PM EDT) and on Sunday May 1, 2022 from 1200Z (8:00 AM EDT) and 2159Z (5:59 PM EDT), which is a 20 hour total operating period.   The 40, 20, 15, and 10 Meter bands will be used.  All 67 Florida Counties will be eligible for activation.

In honor of the 25th Florida QSO Party Anniversary, there will be the Florida QSO Party Silver Spelling Bee, which will have a total of 25 special 1×1 stations with one suffix for each letter of the alphabet except the letter X (FCC regulation). There are a total of 21 SSB and 21 CW stations active…The Florida QSO Party Silver Spelling Bee is a 1×1 Sweep and endorsed for either Mixed or CW or SSB modes.

For all the details on the Florida QSO Party, including the Florida QSO Party Silver Spelling Bee, please go to their Florida QSO Party website at https://www.floridaqsoparty.org.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-08

WCF SECTION ARES LUNCHEON AND MEETING FOR SPRING 2022 SCHEDULED

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Luncheon and Meeting for the Spring of 2022 are now scheduled.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting is scheduled for Saturday April 23, 2022 from 1300 until 1500, and will be held at the Hardee County Emergency Operations Center, located at 404 W. Orange St., in downtown Wauchula.  The meeting will be preceded by the customary ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Luncheon on Saturday April 23, 2022 at 1100 and will be held at Paul’s Kitchen, located at 116 N. 4th Avenue near downtown Wauchula, just a few blocks from the Hardee County Emergency Operations Center.

The meeting will be a dual in-person and Zoom meeting.  For more information about the meeting including maps to the meeting and lunch venues and Zoom meeting info, please go to the Section ARES webpage at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-07

CHARLOTTE AMATEUR RADIO SOCIETY TO CONDUCT COMMUNICATIONS EXERCISE

The following is from a Charlotte Amateur Radio Society press release concerning the upcoming communications exercise planned for Saturday March 19, 2022:

“The Charlotte Amateur Radio Society plans an emergency communications exercise to prepare for the 2022 hurricane season.  This exercise is part of the Charlotte Amateur Radio Society’s long-term multipart educational program to  ensure that radio amateurs in our area have a way to grow and practice the skills that may be used in a variety
of emergency communications situations.

The objective of this exercise is to evaluate our ability to gather information from local amateur radio operators using FM Simplex and pass the information to a local command station using JS8 Call.

Our primary goal is to test YOUR VHF and UHF voice communications on FM Simplex operating frequencies.

Can your equipment communicate with any of the portable stations? Can you contact all three portable stations? Will your HT work or do you need to be on your base rig? Do you have mobile capabilities?

You can operate your equipment in any or all three classes of operation:
1. BASE
2. MOBILE
3. HT (Handie-Talkie)

You will send your call sign, 6 digit grid square, Class, and power (100 watts, 50 watts, 5 watts, etc.) by FM voice on the designated frequencies listed below.  EXAMPLE: KM4LKC, EL96bx, Base, 50 watts.

Our portable operating stations below will confirm the receipt of your information. You can contact another portable station or change classes and try again. It may be possible to make 18 contacts (9 on VHF and 9 on UHF) depending on your equipment and location.

The secondary goal is to test each portable station’s capability to gather information and pass digital traffic to a central command station. Each of the portable stations will send their logged contact information to a central command station using JS8 Call on 6 meters.

CARS plans to deploy three (3) portable operating stations spread across the county. We expect to have stations in El Jobean, Murdock, and Punta Gorda.

Licensed Amateur radio operators from Charlotte County and the directly surrounding counties that are not members of CARS are encouraged to visit the CARS website for information about how they can help on the day of the event from their own radios. See www.carsfl.org.

If news organizations wish to observe the stations during setup and operations, please contact Douglas Young, KM4LKC email to: km4lkc@arrl.net”

END OF PRESS RELEASE

WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-06

THE WCF PRESSER ISSUE #63 FOR JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2022 IS NOW PUBLISHED.

The WCF PRESSER Issue #63 for January/February 2022, has been published on the Section website.
Darrell Davis KT4WX, Assistant Section Manager for Publications, made the following comments about this issue of THE WCF PRESSER being late, “My apologies to all for not getting this issue of THE WCF PRESSER out in a timely manner.  I intended to publish this just before the Orlando Hamcation.  Between committments at work and then my Mom’s subsequent hospitalization and then rehab, time has been at a premium.  Some of the content may be outdated as a result of the late publication. Thank you to all of you for your understanding, prayers, thoughts, and well wishes.  We will be publishing the March/April issue in about two weeks.”
An announcement of the publication of the WCF PRESSER will be disseminated on the ARRL remailer shortly. If anyone has any information that is amateur radio related that you would like to go into the next issue of THE WCF PRESSER, please send that to our newsletter editor, Jim Weslager K3WR via email at weslager@gmail.com.
For the PDF version of this newsletter and past issues in PDF format go to http://arrlwcf.org/home/the-wcf-section-presser-arrl-west-central-florida-section-news/.
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