ARRL West Central Florida Section

EAGLE NET AND WCF SECTION TECHNICAL NET CANCELLATIONS FOR HURRICANE MILTON

Due to the soon arrival of Hurricane Milton to the west coast of Florida, the following nets will be cancelled in order to facilitate a Regional SKYWARN Net or any support needed for ARES groups that are active:

• Eagle Net:  Cancelled until further notice when the threat from Milton is .
• WCF Section Technical Net:  The session scheduled Thursday 10/10/24 is canceled.

Both of these nets will resume operations as soon as the current emergency situation is concluded.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

HURRICANE MILTON – 2000 EDT – 10/08/24

Hurricane Milton has remained between a Category 4 and a Category 5 hurricane.  Milton is in the process of beginning the turn towards the northeast and head for the Florida west coast.  An approaching front with its preceding trough will determine the final path of Milton.  That cold front and trough will increase the wind shear across Milton and some drier air will get drawn into Milton, lowering its intensity somewhat before landfall on the Florida west coastal, which for right now is near Sarasota, south of where the landfall was previously expected.  In spite of this change in expected landfall, Milton is still a dangerous storm and not to be taken for granted.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI…710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…165 MPH…270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…902 MB…26.64 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dzilam to Cancun Mexico
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton’s central pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and 145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is
entering Milton as we speak.

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term 12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours (around the time of potential landfall), NHC’s track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can’t
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not
be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction.

Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.  In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today.
Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

The ARRL West Central Florida Section now has the following watches and warnings in effect:

• Hurricane Warning until further notice:  Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota Counties.
• Storm Surge Warning until further notice: Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, and Coastal Charlotte Counties.
• Flood Watch through Thursday morning.

As of press time, we have the following information on ARES groups activations.  The following ARES groups have been activated:  Charlotte County ARES, Hillsborough County ARES/RACES, Pinellas County ARES/ACS, Manatee County ARES, and Desoto County ARES.  The following ARES groups are to active on Wednesday morning 10/09/24:  Hardee County ARES, Highlands County ARES, and Polk County ARES.

The Section ARES Alert Level is currently at a Level 2.  Then when all ARES groups available activate, the ARES Alert Level will go to a Leve1 alert, which is a full activation.  This is subject to change on a moments notice.  The latest status can be found on the main page of the Section website under the “ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Alert Status.

A Regional SKWYARN Net will be held on the NI4CE Analog and NI4CE NXDN Systems (talkgroup 1299) once the landfall of Milton gets closer.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to rush to completion any personal preparations that have not been completed.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  Currently there are two other tropical storms out in the Atlantic, which do not threaten the continental United States.  However, this can change rapidly, so vigilance is the order of hurricane season.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062052.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/062051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/062053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL142024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 2000 EDT tomorrow evening or sooner if conditions warrant.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE MILTON – 2000 EDT – 10/07/24

Hurricane Milton has gone from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane since our last special bulletin yesterday.  What is unprecedented is that the maximum sustained winds of 180 MPH and a barometric pressure of 26.97 inches!!  Milton will eventually turn towards the northeast and head for the Florida west coast, as an approaching front with its preceding trough will determine the final path of Milton.  That cold front and trough will increase the wind shear across Milton and some drier air will get drawn into Milton, lowering its intensity somewhat before landfall on the Florida west coastal, which for right now is in the Tampa area.  In spite of this, Milton is still a dangerous storm and not to be taken for granted.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI…1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…180 MPH…285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…897 MB…26.49 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80 minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since that time, satellite images continue to show further organization, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.

Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I’ve seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

The ARRL West Central Florida Section now has the following watches and warnings in effect:

• Hurricane Warning until further notice:  Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, and Sarasota Counties.
• Storm Surge Warning until further notice: Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, and Coastal Charlotte Counties.
• Flood Watch through Thursday morning.

As of press time, we have the following information on ARES groups activations.  The following ARES groups are to active tomorrow morning, Tuesday 10/08/24: Charlotte County ARES, Hillsborough County ARES/RACES, and Pinellas County ARES/ACS.  The following ARES groups are to active on Wednesday morning 10/09/24:  Hardee County ARES and Highlands County ARES.

Commensurate with the activations tomorrow, the Section ARES Alert Level will be raised to a Level 2 alert, which is a partial activation.  Then when all ARES groups available activate, the ARES Alert Level will go to a Leve1 alert, which is a full activation.  This is subject to change on a moments notice.  The latest status can be found on the main page of the Section website under the “ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Alert Status.

A Regional SKWYARN Net will be held on the NI4CE Analog and NI4CE NXDN Systems (talkgroup 1299) once the landfall of Milton gets closer.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to rush to completion any personal preparations that have not been completed.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  Currently there are two other tropical storms out in the Atlantic, which do not threaten the continental United States.  However, this can change rapidly, so vigilance is the order of hurricane season.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062052.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/062051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/062053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL142024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 2000 EDT tomorrow evening or sooner if conditions warrant.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE MILTON – 2000 EDT – 10/06/24

The disturbance that was located in the western Caribbean for the last week finally emerged into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  The National Hurricane Center begin issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen on Saturday morning, being updated quickly to Tropical Storm Milton by Saturday afternoon.  This morning the National Hurricane Center declared Milton a Category 1 hurricane.  Milton, is being steered to the east by a low pressure system.  Milton is expected to continue east and then turn northeast towards a landfall on the Florida west coast on Wednesday afternoon to early evening.  The approaching front with its preceding trough will determine the final path of Milton.  With this latest tropical threat to Florida, WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETINS on Milton are now being commenced.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…22.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 250 MI…405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI…1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80 minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since that time, satellite images continue to show further organization, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.

Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I’ve seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

Hillsborough County ARES has been requested to active for staffing shelters on Monday 10/07/24.  Other ARES groups are on stand by to be deployed as well.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section went to a ARES Alert Level 3 at 0920 in response to this activation and other anticipated activation.

A Regional SKWYARN Net will be held on the NI4CE Analog and NI4CE NXDN Systems (talkgroup 1299) once the landfall of Milton gets closer.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to rush to completion any personal preparations that have not been completed.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  Currently there are two other tropical storms out in the Atlantic, which do not threaten the continental United States.  However, this can change rapidly, so vigilance is the order of hurricane season.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062052.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/062051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/062053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL142024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 2000 EDT tomorrow evening or sooner if conditions warrant.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE HELENE SURVIVORS HEALTH AND WELFARE INQUIRY INFO AND RECOVERY COMMUNICATIONS FEED.

The American Red Cross has setup a section of their website where the family and friends of the survivors or Hurricane Helene, may register any health and welfare inquiries as to their status.  The weblink for those health and welfare inquires is https://www.redcross.org/get-help/disaster-relief-and-recovery-services/contact-and-locate-loved-ones/hurricane-helene-reunification.html

For those interested in listening to recovery communications in the Asheville, North Carolina, the audio feed for the 145.350 MHz W4HTP repeater located on Mount Mitchell, can be found on the Broadcastify website at https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/43107

END OF PRESS RELEASE

 

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE – 2000 EDT – 9/27/24 – FINAL

Hurricane Helene made landfall a Category 4 Hurricane at approximately 2310 EDT yesterday, just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River, which is about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, in Taylor County.  As expected by this morning the center of Helene had moved into south central Georgia.  Helene has now transitioned into a extratropical area of low pressure that is centered over central Kentucky  Conditions will continue to improve and tomorrow’s weather will return to a normal late summertime pattern.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 1700 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…37.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SSE OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Helene has been producing catastrophic flooding over portions of the southeast U.S. and southern Appalachians, and the associated heavy rains are shifting westward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that
Helene has completed extratropical transition, and the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The cyclone is moving to the north-northwest at 15 kt. A slowdown is expected tonight, and the cyclone is forecast to stall over the Tennessee Valley this weekend, likely resulting in continued and prolonged rainfall.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center on Helene. Future information on this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 1000 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All tropical related watches and warnings for the State of Florida were discontinued this morning.

There are approximately 538,000 customers without power in the State of Florida, of which 238,000 customers are in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  There are major power outages in nine other states.  For detailed information you can go to https://poweroutage.us/ The point of landfall was very close to where Hurricane Debby made landfall in August, and not that far from where Hurricane Idalia made landfall in August 2023.  Destruction and flooding extend beyond the State of Florida into the Southeastern United States.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section remains at a Level 2 Activation.  Hillsborough County ARES/RACES remains fully activated.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  Currently there are two tropical storms out in the Atlantic, which do not threaten the continental United States.  However, this can change rapidly, so vigilance is the order of hurricane season.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232347.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#navLink

CONCLUSION

This will be the last WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Post Tropical Cyclone Helene.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE HELENE – 2000 EDT – 9/26/24

Hurricane Helene was declared to be a Category 4 Hurricane at 1900 EDT in a special statement from the National Hurricane Center.  Helene is still poised to make landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle sometime after sunset this evening and is moving at an amazing forward speed of 23 MPH.    The center of Helene passed by Tampa Bay about one to two hours ago, and was off the Florida west coast approximately 100 miles.  This storm is larger than Hurricane Debby in early August, but will be moving much faster than Hurricane Debby, which means it will not linger around like many tropical systems can and often do.  By Friday morning, Helene will be over southern central Georgia as a minimal hurricane and by Friday afternoon will be over eastern Tennessee where it is expected to slow down and stall and then begin the process of merging with a low pressure system that has been helping to steer Helene on its current path.  Conditions will begin to improve for us tomorrow morning and on Saturday our weather should return to our normal summertime weather pattern for the most part.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…28.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…942 MB…27.82 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Helene has rapidly intensified today while nearing landfall in the Florida Big Bend. Doppler radar and aircraft data indicate that the eyewall is now completely closed and the eye has become more circular and is clearing out. The aircraft data also indicated that the inner core has contracted significantly today while the tropical-storm-force winds have expanded. Based on all of the data, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The latest minimum pressure based on the aircraft data is around 951 mb. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida, and conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly in the hurricane warning area during the next several hours. It should be emphasized that Helene is at the upper bound of hurricanes in terms of storm size and impacts are and will occur well away from the center.

The large hurricane is now accelerating north-northeastward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 025/20 kt. This general motion is expected to continue, taking the core of the major hurricane to the Florida Big Bend later this evening. After landfall, a turn to the north over Georgia is expected late tonight and early Friday, followed by a slowdown or a complete stall over the Tennessee Valley late Friday and Saturday when Helene merges with a mid- to upper-level low.

The hurricane has intensified by 30 kt since sunrise and given the conducive environmental conditions and contracting inner core, it seems likely that Helene will be at or very near category 4 strength when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. The fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

The only changes in watches and warnings is the Tornado Watch, issued for all of the ARRL West Central Florida Section this morning, that was extended until 0600 EDT tomorrow morning.  No other changes to watches and or warnings since this time yesterday.  Here is the summary of the watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Pasco County.
• A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are both in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Inland Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties: Inland Pasco, Pinellas, Inland Hillsborough, Inland Manatee, Inland Sarasota, and Charlotte.
• A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, and Coastal Charlotte.
• A Flood Watch is also in effect for all counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section through Friday morning.

Executive Order 24-209, issued by Florida Governor Ron Desantis, is still in effect.  The declaration covers 61 of 67 Florida counties.  All counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section are now under a declared state of emergency.  For the full text of Executive Order 24-209 go to https://www.flgov.com/2024/09/24/memorandum-executive-order-number-24-209-emergency-management-amending-execuive-order-24-208-potential-tropical-cyclone-nine/.

There are approximately 210,000 customers without power in the ARRL West Central Florida, with most of these power outages being in the coastal counties.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section remains at a Level 2 Activation.  Hillsborough County ARES/RACES remains fully activated.  In addition Manatee County ARES and Charlotte County ARES were activated today as well.

The West Central Florida Skywarn Net is active on the NI4CE Analog and the NI4CE NXDN repeater system (talkgroup 1299), and will continue to be active until the threat from Helene is diminished.

In support of the anticipated SKYWARN Net on the NI4CE Repeater System the following net sessions will be cancelled:

• The Eagle Net scheduled for Thursday 9/26/24 at 2030 is cancelled.
• The ARRL West Central Florida Section for Thursday 9/26/25 at 2100 is cancelled.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Storm Helene and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232347.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SPECIAL BULLETIN will be tomorrow evening right after the 2000 EDT intermediate advisory on Hurricane Helene.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE HELENE – 2000 EDT – 9/25/24

Tropical Storm Helene was declared to be a Category 1 Hurricane at the 1100 EDT advisory today.  Helene, after coming very close to the northeast coast of the Yucatan peninsula this morning, emerged into the southern Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon and early this evening.  Helene is forecast to continue its intensification, until it becomes a Category 4 hurricane, a major hurricane, late tomorrow morning to early tomorrow afternoon.   Helene, now that is getting into the southern Gulf of Mexico, can tap into the very hot water and low wind shear, which is essentially “rocket fuel” for rapid intensification.  Hurricane Helene is still poised to make landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle near sunset tomorrow evening.  Helene has already increased in forward speed to 12 MPH and will continue to steadily increase in forward speed until its forward speed will be near 20 MPH by the time it passes by the Tampa Bay area, and by landfall its forward speed will be near 24 MPH, which is amazing for a tropical system.   This storm is larger than Hurricane Debby in early August, but will be moving much faster than Hurricane Debby, which means it will not linger around like many tropical systems can and often do.  By Friday morning, Helene will be over southern central Georgia as a minimal hurricane and by Friday afternoon will be over eastern Tennessee as a post tropical storm.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI…690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI…760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…974 MB…28.76 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 81 kt.

Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next 24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee Valley.

The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

Not much has changed with the watches and warnings since yesterday.  Here is the summary of the watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Pasco County.
• A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are both in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Inland Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties: Inland Pasco, Pinellas, Inland Hillsborough, Inland Manatee, Inland Sarasota, and Charlotte.
• A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, and Coastal Charlotte.
• A Flood Watch is also in effect for all counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section through Friday morning.

Executive Order 24-209, issued by Florida Governor Ron Desantis, is still in effect.  The declaration covers 61 of 67 Florida counties.  All counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section are now under a declared state of emergency.  For the full text of Executive Order 24-209 go to https://www.flgov.com/2024/09/24/memorandum-executive-order-number-24-209-emergency-management-amending-execuive-order-24-208-potential-tropical-cyclone-nine/.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section remains at a Level 2 Activation.  Hillsborough County ARES/RACES remains fully activated.

The West Central Florida Skywarn Net will be activated on the NI4CE Analog and the NI4CE NXDN repeater system (talkgroup 1299), once severe weather begins to threaten the NWS Forecast Office Ruskin Coverage Warning Area, which should be sometime later on Wednesday.

In support of the anticipated SKYWARN Net on the NI4CE Repeater System the following net sessions will be cancelled:

• The Eagle Net scheduled for Thursday 9/26/24 at 2030 is cancelled.
• The ARRL West Central Florida Section for Thursday 9/26/25 at 2100 is cancelled.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should work to complete any last minute preparations in the next 24 hours, and do any last minute checks on their equipment in case they are requested to activate.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Storm Helene and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232347.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SPECIAL BULLETIN will be tomorrow evening right after the 2000 EDT intermediate advisory on Hurricane Helene.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HELENE – 2000 EDT – 9/24/24

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was declared a “full fledged” tropical cyclone this morning in the 1100 EDT advisory, and went from straight from a potential tropical cyclone to a tropical storm.  The forecast track has changed very little since yesterday.  Right before the center enters the Gulf of Mexico on early Wednesday morning, Helene is forecast to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane.  Helene is forecast to continue this intensification, until it becomes a Category 3 hurricane, a major hurricane, on early Thursday morning before making landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle by Thursday evening near sunset. In other words, the energy available for this storm to tap is essentially “rocket fuel.”  Storms that enter the Gulf of Mexico often intensify very quickly, due to the high water temperature and low shear levels.  Helene once it reaches about 25 degrees in latitude is expect to “hit the accelerator” and increase in forward speed to around 20 mph, continuing this speed and increasing even slightly more after landfall, due to traveling in the area between a low pressure area to the west and high pressure to the east.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Deep convection is gradually filling in within Helene’s circulation, and the well-defined center that formed earlier this morning is now obscured by cloudiness and showers. Data from NOAA buoy indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 995 mb, and the initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt. NOAA and the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Helene this evening to provide more information about the storm’s intensity and structure.

With the center formation this morning, Helene has taken a short-term jog to the west-northwest (300/10 kt). The storm is expected to turn northwestward by tonight and then northward on Wednesday as high pressure over Florida shifts eastward, and a deep-layer trough digs southward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.  The NHC track forecast has been shifted westward during the first 24 hours to account for the recent motion, and Helene’s center could get very close to the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday morning. After that time, however, the NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous prediction, except for being a little bit slower based on the latest guidance. Helene is expected to accelerate while it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the Florida Gulf coast.

Warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and strong upper-level divergence are likely to foster Helene’s strengthening while it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS/LGEM models, as well as the regional hurricane models, continue to show Helene reaching major hurricane intensity while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and that continues to be shown in the NHC forecast. Helene could maintain that level of intensity until it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida.

Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene’s forecast size. Helene’s forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

Much has changed since yesterday as expected.  Here is the summary of the watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Pasco County.
• A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are both in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Inland Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota.
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties: Inland Pasco, Pinellas, Inland Hillsborough, Inland Manatee, Inland Sarasota, and Charlotte.
• A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, Coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Coastal Sarasota, and Coastal Charlotte.
• A Flood Watch is also in effect for all counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section through Friday morning.

In anticipation of the arrival of what will become Hurricane Helene, Florida Governor Ron Desantis signed Executive Order 24-209, which amended his previous executive order, Executive ORder .  The number of Florida counties included in this declaration went from 41 to 61 counties.  All counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section are now under a declared state of emergency.  For the full text of Executive Order 24-209 go to https://www.flgov.com/2024/09/24/memorandum-executive-order-number-24-209-emergency-management-amending-execuive-order-24-208-potential-tropical-cyclone-nine/.

Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has been fully activated and requested to staff the EOC and several shelters.  Bill Fetta N7CGG, Section Emergency Coordinator raised the ARES Alert Level to a Level 2, which is a partial activation, when one or more ARES groups in the ten counties of the ARR West Central Florida Section have been activated.ll ARES personnel are strongly encouraged to stay in communication with your respective ARES group leadership, as this may change in the next 12 to 24 hours.

The West Central Florida Skywarn Net will be activated on the NI4CE Analog and the NI4CE NXDN repeater system (talkgroup 1299), once severe weather begins to threaten the NWS Forecast Office Ruskin Coverage Warning Area, which should be sometime later on Wednesday.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should work to complete any last minute preparations in the next 24 hours, and do any last minute checks on their equipment in case they are requested to activate.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Storm Helene and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232347.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SPECIAL BULLETIN will be tomorrow evening right after the 2000 EDT intermediate advisory on Tropical Storm Helene.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE – 2000 EDT – 9/23/24

The area of disturbed weather that has been traveling across the southern Caribbean sea for about the last week, is now starting to get better organized.  Yesterday, it was designated Invest 97L.  As Invest 97L has been getting better organized, and in keeping with modern practice, the National Hurricane Center, declared Invest 97L to be Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  This system is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Helene on Tuesday, and once it enters the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, rapidly intensify to a Category 1 Hurricane on Wednesday, and further intensify into a Category 3 Hurricane, a major hurricane, on Thursday before making landfall in the Florida panhandle.  This storm once it enters the Gulf of Mexico is expected to increase in forward speed as well running in between a low pressure area to the west and high pressure to the east.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…18.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.

The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.

The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core, these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.

Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time there are not any watches or warnings in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  However by this time tomorrow that situation will no doubt have changed and there will be watches or warnings in effect.

In anticipation of the arrival of what will become Hurricane Helene, Florida Governor Ron Desantis signed Executive Order 24-208, which is an emergency declaration for 41 Florida counties. For the full text of the declaration please go to https://www.flgov.com/2024/09/23/memorandum-executive-order-number-24-208-emergency-management-potential-tropical-cyclone-nine/ Included in this declaration are the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties.  At the present time the inland ARRL West Central Florida Section counties of Desoto, Hardee, Highlands, and Polk Counties are not included.  However this could change if the path of the storm significantly changes.

Bill Fetta N7CGG, Section Emergency Coordinator raised the ARES Alert Level to a Level 3, which is a standby mode, in case of activation of any ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  At the present time no ARES groups have been requested to activate.  All ARES personnel are strongly encouraged to stay in communication with your respective ARES group leadership, as this may change in the next 12 to 24 hours.

The West Central Florida Skywarn Net will be activated on the NI4CE Analog and the NI4CE NXDN repeater system (talkgroup 1299), once severe weather begins to threaten the NWS Forecast Office Ruskin Coverage Warning Area.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should work to complete any last minute preparations and do any last minute checks on their equipment in case they are requested to activate.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232347.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232051.shtml?

Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232053.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SPECIAL BULLETIN will be tomorrow evening right after the 2000 EDT intermediate advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN