ARRL West Central Florida Section

SECTION ARES AND INFORMATION NET FOR SATURDAY 7/17/21 IS CANCELLED

In keeping with tradition, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net on 3940 KHz at 0730 hours or immediately following the Florida Phone Traffic Net scheduled for Saturday July 17, 2021, has been cancelled, so everyone will have time to prepare to attend the Summer 2021 Section ARES Luncheon at 1100 hours and the Summer 2021 Section ARES Meeting at 1300 hours, on Saturday July 17th, 2021  For more details on the location of the Summer 2021 Section ARES Luncheon and Meeting, you may go to the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net will return to its normal scheduled date and time on Saturday July 24th, 2021.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

NEW EMERGENCY COORDINATOR FOR POLK COUNTY APPOINTED

On Tuesday July 1, 2021, Mike Douglas W4MDD, Section Manager of the ARRL West Central Florida Section, appointed Mike Shreve N6MRS to be the new ARRL Emergency Coordinator for Polk County. Shreve succeeds Christine Duez K4KJN, who had been ARRL Emergency Coordinator since July 2020.

Shreve had been interested in amateur radio as a youth, it was not until 2013 that Shreve received his Technician’s license with the callsign of KK4UGD.  Shreve subsequently upgraded to General in 2014, changed his callsign to his current callsign of N6MRS in 2017, and upgraded to Extra Class in 2019.  Shreve is currently serving as President of the Lakeland Amateur Radio Club, is also active in Polk County ARES, active on several NTS traffic nets, and operates almost exclusively CW on the HF bands.   Shreve has lived in Lakeland since 1989 and is fluent in Spanish. Shrever brings his management and public speaking skills developed over a lifetime to his new position as ARRL Emergency Coordinator.

Shreve retired in 2018 from a thirty-seven year career in international sales management covering Mexico, Central and South America and the Caribbean.  Shreve has been married for 44 years, has three children, and five grandchildren.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ELSA – 1800 EDT – 7/07/21

Tropical Elsa Elsa obtained hurricane status late yesterday evening and earlier this morning, slightly weakened to a high end Tropical Storm.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

The primary impact to the coastal counties ARRL West Central Florida Section will be from storm surge, tropical storm force winds but soon begin to diminish today.  The primary impact to the inland counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section will flooding due to excessive rain especially near rivers.

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt.  This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no
surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be
completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All Tropical Storm warnings and Storm Surge warnings for the State of Florida are discontinued.  A Flood Warnings are in effect for several rives in Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties until Friday evening.  All other Flood warnings are discontinued.

With the expected closure of the shelter openings in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, Hillsborough ARES/RACES and Pinellas ARES/ACS have deactivated by now or should deactivate shortly.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES will return to No Activation level at 1800 EDT this evening, due to the deactivation of Hillsborough County ARES/RACES and Pinellas County ARES/ACS.  Note: Section ARES Activations Levels are simply alert messages, as each ARES group is responsible for his own level of activation.

Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

CONCLUSION

This bulletin will be the last bulletin issued on Tropical Storm Elsa.  Thank you to everyone in ARES, ACS, and CERT groups for your service in Tropical Storm Elsa.

TAMIAMI AMATEUR RADIO CLUB TO HOST A FOXHUNT IN OCTOBER

The Tamiami Amateur Radio Club in Venice recently announced its FIRST ANNUAL CLASSIC FOX HUNT event to be held at the T. Mabry Carlton Reserve in Venice on Saturday, October 23, 2021. Event details and pre-registration form (required) for the event can be found at our website:  https://tamiamiarc.org/annual-fox-hunt/.

Members of the Tamiami Amateur Radio Club have been experimenting with Amateur Radio Direction Finding (ARDF) for over a year now.  It began as a “lets give it a try” activity by a few club members, has turned into a much anticipated and fun outdoor activity for many club members to engage in. ARDF is a simple and inexpensive part of our ham radio hobby that looks easy, but can be very challenging in the execution. In the last two decades, ARDF has become a more and more popular part of the amateur radio hobby in the US.  The Tamiami Amateur Radio Club wants to introduce ARDF to other hams in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

Registration is $25 and event logo embroidered hats will be given to all participants. Hunters MUST be pre-registered for the event by October 10, 2021. No on site registrations will be allowed on the day of the event.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ELSA – 0800 EDT – 7/07/21

Tropical Elsa Elsa obtained hurricane status late yesterday evening and earlier this morning, slightly weakened to a high end Tropical Storm.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

The primary impact to the coastal counties ARRL West Central Florida Section will be from storm surge, tropical storm force winds but soon begin to diminish today.  The primary impact to the inland counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section will flooding due to excessive rain especially near rivers.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…29.2N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 0800 EDT today:

“The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air
entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data.

After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula.  Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected
by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models.

While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to
become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

In the ARRL West Central Florida Section, all Hurricane Warnings have been discontinued.  A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning are in effect for Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties.  The Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte County has been discontinued.  A Flood Warning is in effect Hardee, Desoto, Manatee, eastern Sarasota, and eastern Charlotte Counties until 1500 EDT today due to excessive rainfall.  Flood Warnings are in effect for several rives in Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties until Friday evening. A Flood Watch is in effect for all counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section until 1400 EDT today.

As of press time, two ARES Groups are still partially activated:

• Pinellas County ARES/ACS has been requested to staff the Emergency Operations Center and two Community Wellness Centers with auxiliary communications beginning yesterday morning at 0900.
• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has been requested to staff the Hillsborough County Public Safety Operations Complex and a shelter at Riverview High School at approximately 0900 yesterday morning.

As a result ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remain at a Level 2 activation, which is a partial activation, due to the activation of ARES groups in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.  Note: Section ARES Activations Levels are simply alert messages, as each ARES group is responsible for his own level of activation.

Other ARES groups in other counties are on standby in case they are requested to activate  All of the ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section have been taking preparedness actions with their equipment and supplies, and monitoring the situation carefully, just in case they are requested to active by their various served agencies.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should monitor their email and phones for any requests for assistance from their served agencies through their respective chains of command.  Please do not self-activate as requests for assistance and or mutual assistance must follow through the proper procedure.  Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE INFORMATION.

Hurricane Local Statement – NWS Ruskin:  https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tbw&wwa=hurricane%20local%20statement
Flood Warnings issued: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tbw&wwa=flood%20warning

 

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1800 EST this evening, following the 1700 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Elsa, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

TUESDAY 7/06/21 EDITION OF THE EAGLE NET CURTAILED AND 7/06/21 SKYWARN INFORMATION NET ARE CANCELLED.

Dave Rockwell W4PXE, Net Manager of the Eagle Net announced at 2015 EDT on the NI4CE Repeater System, that the Eagle Net scheduled for this evening, Tuesday 7/06/21 would meet only briefly to take any emergency or priority traffic that was related to just recently upgraded Hurricane Elsa and all other routine traffic and regular checkins would be suspended for this evening.

It was also announced by Paul Toth NB9X on the NI4CE Repeater System that the Skywarn and Information Net scheduled for 2100 EDT had also been cancelled due to recently upgraded Hurricane Elsa being off the west coast of Florida.

Both nets will return to normal operation at their next scheduled times of operation..

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ELSA – 1800 EDT – 7/06/21

As of 1700 EDT the center of Elsa was about due west of Naples in Collier Count or about 155 south-southwest of Tampa.  The forecast path has had no significant changes since the last bulletin this morning. Elsa is now moving north between low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and the periphery of the upper level subtropical ridge that is over the western Atlantic off the east coast of Florida.  Please note as Elsa moves north, it will draw closer to the Florida west coast (because the coastline runs slightly north to northwest) but is not predicted make landfall until tomorrow morning in the big bend area in the proximity of Levy or Dixie Counties.   The primary impact to the coastal counties ARRL West Central Florida Section will be from storm surge, tropical storm force winds, perhaps some low end hurricane force winds in Pinellas county.   The primary impact to the inland counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section will be possible tornadoes and flooding due to excessive rain especially near rivers.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…25.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the DryTortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 0500 EST today:

“Elsa’s overall cloud pattern has changed little in organization since earlier today. There continues to be minimal shower and thunderstorm activity over the western semicircle of the circulation, with some bursting of deep convection near and east of the estimated center. A slightly-elevated observing site on Sand Key, near Key West Florida, recently reported a peak 1-minute wind of 49 kt with a gust to 56 kt. This supports the current intensity estimate of 50 kt. Recent WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the Key West radar suggest that the storm could be a little stronger than that. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm has been delayed due to bad weather at the Keesler base, but is
rescheduled to investigate Elsa in a few hours. This flight should provide updated information on the intensity of the system.

Recently, the storm has been moving a little slower toward the north-northwest and the initial motion is about 340/9 kt. Elsa should move generally northward today and tonight between the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and an area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast should occur on Wednesday as the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.  Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada.  This will take the system across the southeastern United States within the next couple of days, near the coast of New England in about 3 days and near or over Atlantic Canada in 4 days or so. The official forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and, again, very close to the model consensus.

The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the
system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high end of the numerical intensity guidance.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

In the ARRL West Central Florida Section, A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Pinellas County.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte County.  A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte County.   A Tornado watch went into effect at 1345 EDT this afternoon and expires at 2300 EDT for all of counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  A Flood Warning is in effect for portions of the Little Manatee River and Manatee River in Manatee County.  A Flood Watch is in effect for all counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section until 1400 EDT tomorrow.

As of press time, two ARES Groups have been partially activated:

• Pinellas County ARES/ACS has been requested to staff the Emergency Operations Center and two Community Wellness Centers with auxiliary communications beginning tomorrow morning at 0900.
• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has been requested to staff the Hillsborough County Public Safety Operations Complex and a shelter at Riverview High School at approximately 0900.

As a result ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remain at a Level 2 activation, which is a partial activation, due to the activation of ARES groups in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.  Note: Section ARES Activations Levels are simply alert messages, as each ARES group is responsible for his own level of activation.

Other ARES groups in other counties are on standby in case they are requested to activate  All of the ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section have been taking preparedness actions with their equipment and supplies, and monitoring the situation carefully, just in case they are requested to active by their various served agencies.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should monitor their email and phones for any requests for assistance from their served agencies through their respective chains of command.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should perform any last minute checks on equipment and or supplies in case of activation.  Please do not self-activate as requests for assistance and or mutual assistance must follow through the proper procedure.  Any personal preparedness activities should be complete at this point.  Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?
Hurricane Local Statement – NWS Ruskin:  https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tbw&wwa=hurricane%20local%20statement

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 0800 EST tomorrow this evening, following the 0500 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Elsa, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

8th ANNUAL TECHCON DATE AND VENUE SET

The date and venue for the 8th Annual TECHCON have been set.  The date for the 8th Annual TECHCON, the Annual Technical Conference for the ARRL West Central Florida Section, is Friday February 25, 2022 and Saturday February 26, 2022.  The venue for the 8th Annual TECHCON will be the Polk County Emergency Operations Center, located between Winter Haven and Lakeland in Polk County.  The 7th Annual TECHCON, held in February of this year, had been scheduled to take place at the Polk County Emergency Operations Center, but became a virtual event only via Zoom due to concerns from COVID-19.

The 8th Annual TECHCON will be a face to face conference as it has been in years past but also will be available for viewing via Zoom teleconferencing.  The 8th Annual TECHCON will see a resumption of the Friday Afternoon Workshop and Friday Evening Social.  The presentations for TECHCON will be recorded and available for viewing on the Section’s YouTube channel immediately after the conclusion of TECHCON wihch is located at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFA4-HEjr-lYMFisVG_Nk5A.

Registration for the 8th Annual TECHCON is now open.  You may register to either atttend or make a presentation for TECHCON at http://arrlwcf.org/section-forms/wcftechconfregistration/.  For more information about TECHCON you may go to the TECHCON webpage on the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-special-events/wcftechconference/

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ELSA – 0700 EDT – 7/06/21

Elsa moved out into the Florida Straits around 2200 EDT yesterday evening.   As of 0500 EDT the center of Elsa was about 50 miles southwest of Key West.  The forecast path has had no significant changes since the last bulletin yesterday evening. Elsa is now moving NNW around the periphery of the upper level subtropical ridge that is over the western Atlantic off the east coast of Florida.  The primary impact to the ARRL West Central Florida Section will be in the coastal counties, particularly in the northern coastal counties from storm surge, tropical storm force winds, and flooding near rivers.  However the inland counties still have a possible impact from flooding due to excessive rainfall particularly near rivers.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…24.1N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 0500 EST today:

“Elsa is now located over the Florida Straits, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts occurring across the Lower and Middle Keys. Doppler radar data and satellite images indicate that the core of Elsa is fairly small and has maximum winds of around 50 kt. The outer rainbands associated with Elsa are spreading northward across southern Florida, and a cluster of deep convection has been lingering over portions of central and western Cuba. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa later this morning, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm’s intensity and structure.

Elsa is moving to the north-northwest at about 10 kt on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is located over the central Atlantic. The storm should turn northward later today as it moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the south-central U.S. This motion should take the core of Elsa parallel to and likely just offshore of the west coast of Florida through tonight. After that time, a slight turn to the north-northeast is forecast as another trough moves across the north-central U.S. This slight change in heading should bring Elsa inland across the Big Bend region of Florida by early Wednesday and then across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday night through early Friday. Thereafter, the storm is expected to accelerate and move northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The NHC track forecast is basically unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the model consensus aid TVCA.

Now that Elsa is gradually pulling away from Cuba, it will have an opportunity to strengthen. However, the environmental conditions are only marginal for the storm to do so. Dry air on the western side of the cyclone and some westerly shear should prevent rapid intensification, but the small cyclone will likely strengthen slowly before it moves inland over the Big Bend of Florida. The GFS model shows Elsa deepening by 5-10 mb before landfall, and the ECMWF shows even greater pressure falls. Based on these models, the intensity forecast is nudged upward and now shows Elsa just below hurricane force before landfall in Florida. After Elsa moves inland, steady weakening is forecast, but the system is expected to restrengthen over the western Atlantic as it transitions into an extratropical cyclone.

Based on this new forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-central and Big Bend Florida coast. In addition, it should be noted that much of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula is expected to see wind, rain, and surge impacts since that region will be on Elsa’s east side. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

In the ARRL West Central Florida Section, A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Pinellas and Coastal Pasco County.  A Tropical Storm Warning and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal Charlotte County.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Charlotte County.  A Flood Warning is in effect for portions of the Little Manatee River and Manatee River in Manatee County.  A Flood Watch is in effect for all counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

As of press time, two ARES Groups have been requested to partially activate:

• Pinellas County ARES/ACS has been requested to staff the Emergency Operations Center and two Community Wellness Centers with auxiliary communications beginning tomorrow morning at 0900.
• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has been requested to staff the Hillsborough County Public Safety Operations Complex and a shelter at Riverview High School at approximately 0900.

As a result ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES will go to Level 2 activation, which is a partial activation, due to the activation of ARES groups in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.

Other ARES groups in other counties are on standby in case they are requested to activate  All of the ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section have been taking preparedness actions with their equipment and supplies, and monitoring the situation carefully, just in case they are requested to active by their various served agencies.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should monitor their email and phones for any requests for assistance from their served agencies through their respective chains of command.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should perform any last minute checks on equipment and or supplies in case of activation.  Please do not self-activate as requests for assistance and or mutual assistance must follow through the proper procedure.  Any personal preparedness activities should be complete at this point.  Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?
Hurricane Local Statement – NWS Ruskin:  https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=tbw&wwa=hurricane%20local%20statement

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1800 EST tomorrow this evening, following the 1700 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Elsa, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.