WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN #22-17 – 2100 EDT – 11/07/22
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE – 2100 EST – 11/07/22
Just when we all in the ARRL West Central Florida Section began to breathe a little easier, and with only 23 days left to go in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we are now dealing with yet another tropical cyclone. The area of disturbed weather that was north of Puerto Rico, finally was declared to be Subtropical Storm Nicole at 0500 EST this morning.
Subtropical Storm Nicole is expected to turn westward, then slightly southwestward in response to high pressure to the north, and then with an approaching cold front and trough, will eventually turn to the north and then northeast. The timing of the high pressure moving out and the arrival of next trough and cold front will determine the final path of Nicole. With the threat to the State of Florida and the ARRL West Central Florida Section, we are now initiating WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETINS on Nicole.
COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER
SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EST…0100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 425 MI…685 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 K /H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef
The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:
“Nicole’s structure has changed little today. There is some limited convective activity near the center with a large band of showers and thunderstorms extending well north and east over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system this afternoon and has found flight-level and SFMR winds supporting tropical storm strength about 80 n mi northwest of the center, but earlier scatterometer data indicated that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the band well removed from the center. The aircraft reported that the pressure is down to around 1000 mb. The initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt and is based on a blend of the aircraft and earlier satellite wind data.
Nicole is moving northwestward or 310/8 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue overnight as the storm moves around the northeastern portion of a decaying upper-level low. On Tuesday, Nicole is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as a strong mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern United States. This motion should bring the center of Nicole near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward, which should allow Nicole to turn west-northwestward or northwestward as it approaches and then moves over the Florida Peninsula. Later in the period, a large mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is expected to cause Nicole to recurve northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the forecast period, and the confidence in this portion of the track forecast is relatively high. The new NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but shows a track slightly farther inland along the southeast U.S. coast on day 4. There is increasing along-track spread after 72 hours, with the GFS and UKMET slower than the latest ECMWF. The NHC forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids at those times.
Nicole’s sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening. Warm ocean temperatures that Nicole will be traversing should allow for a gradual increase in convection near the center, and this combined with low vertical wind shear, is expected to result in gradual moistening of the environment around Nicole. Most of the dynamical models indicate that Nicole will be able to develop a smaller inner core and transition into a tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours, and once that occurs, a faster rate of intensification is anticipated. The latest NHC intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and calls for the system to be at or near hurricane strength when it passes near or over the northwest Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. The official wind speed forecast is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, and near the most recent dynamical hurricane models. Regardless of Nicole’s exact intensity, the storm’s large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during the next few days.”
SITUATION AND ACTIONS:
At 1613 EST today, the National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Tropical Storm Watches for Polk, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto Counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section. However more watches or warnings will likely be required in the next 12 to 24 hours as Nicole comes closer to the State of Florida.
Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has gone to a Level 3 activation in case they are requested to provide communications for shelters. Other ARES groups are monitoring their situations carefully in case they are requested to activate.
All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to rush to completion any preparation activities in the next 24 hours. All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Subtropical Storm Nicole and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:
Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/072333.shtml?
Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/072100.shtml?
Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/072057.shtml?
Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL172022#navLink
The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EST advisory on Subtropical Storm Nicole, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.