Category: News

HURRICANE IAN – 1300 EDT – 9/26/22

Tropical Storm Ian became Hurricane Ian in the early morning hours.  Ian is forecast to continue strengthening into a Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning.  Also Ian is now moving northwest and eventually to the north.  Also the National Hurricane Center has brought up Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches for much of the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Therefore we are issuing this unscheduled special bulletin due to all the changes  We will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER…INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep convection has increased within the inner core during the pastseveral hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory.

The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h.  Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36 h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS) environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a 35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then, increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.

Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge. Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings
the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it
difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line
with the multi-model consensus aids.

The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast.  Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the southwestern coast of Florida.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is either under a Tropical Storm Watch or a Hurricane Watch.  The following tropical watches and warnings are in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• Hurricane Watch:  Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties.
• Tropical Storm Watch:  Polk, Highlands, Hardee, Desoto, and Charlotte Counties.

As of 1200 EDT today, ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES has moved to a Level 2 Alert, as several ARES groups in the section were activated this morning and some of these groups will go to full activation tomorrow.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

The following activations of the following ARES groups were at the requests of their respective Emergency Management agencies:

• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES:  Level 1 Activation – 9/26/22.
• Pasco County ARES/RACES:  Level 2 Activation: 9/26/22, Level 1 Activation: 9/27/22.
• Pinellas County ARES/ACS:  Level 2 Activation – 9/26/22, Level 1 Activation – 9/27/22.

Several other ARES groups will be advised later today as to whether they will be activated or continue on stand by status by their respective served agencies.  All other ARES groups in the remainder of the ARRL West Central Florida Section are at a Level 3 activation for the time being.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities by the end of the day, if possible, and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer:  http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/.  Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.

Bobby Graves KB5HAV, the Net Manager of the Hurricane Watch Net announced earlier today that the Hurricane Watch Net will active today with following information obtained from their website.

• Net Activation on Monday at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC) on 14.325.00 MHz. Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate Monday evening on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active overnight or until we lose propagation. If propagation lasts overnight, we will close before the WaterWay Net needs to start.
• Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IAN – 1800 EDT – 9/25/22

Tropical Storm Ian continues to get slightly better organized, with Ian forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane on Monday morning.  Ian is forecast to continue strengthening into a Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning.  Also Ian is now beginning the turn to the northwest and eventually to the north.  We will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 80.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 495 MI…795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The organization of Ian has not changed much since this morning. There have been some small bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm this afternoon, but the activity has not yet led to any notable changes in its structure. In fact, the most persistent convection has been in outer rain bands well to the northeast of the circulation near Jamaica. The SFMR wind data and adjusted flight-level winds from the earlier reconnaissance flights supported surface winds of 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian later tonight.

The center of Ian has jogged a bit northward this afternoon, but its longer-term motion is west-northwestward at 300/10 kt. A generally northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba. From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and UKMET models still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance and bring the center of Ian over the coast of west-central Florida, while the HWRF and HMON models are on the western side of the envelope and show Ian approaching the central Florida panhandle. Notably, the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit eastward as well. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended range. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and future adjustments may be required.

Although the storm has yet to develop an inner core, the conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very likely to support strengthening once it becomes better organized. Some dry environmental air may have limited convection today, but the GFS- and ECMWF- simulated satellite imagery indicate that deep convection will increase during the diurnal maximum period overnight. Then, significant strengthening is expected with low deep-layer shear and high oceanic heat content along the forecast track. There is still strong support for rapid intensification in the latest intensity guidance, and the NHC intensity forecast shows Ian becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. This forecast remains close to the IVCN multi-model consensus, with some model aids including HCCA showing even higher peak intensities. Strong southwesterly shear develops over Ian by 72 h related to interaction with an upper-level trough, and the structure of the cyclone could significantly degrade before landfall given these hostile conditions. However, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES currently remains at a Level 3 Activation, as several ARES groups in the section are on standby for possible deployment by early to the  middle of next week.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Activation Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

The following activations of the following ARES groups were at the requests of their respective Emergency Management agencies:

• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES – Going to a Leve1 activation (full activation) on Monday 9/26/22.
• Pinellas County ARES/ACS will be going to a Level 2 activation (partial activation) on Monday 9/26/22 and to Level 1 activation on Tuesday 9/27/22.
• Pasco County ARES/RACES will be going to a Level 2 activation on Monday 9/26/22 and a Level 1 activation on Tuesday 9/27/22.

All the other ARES groups in the remainder of the ARRL West Central Florida Section are at a Level 3 activation for the time being.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities very shortly and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

This information is being posted in today’s bulletin as it is well worth repeating.  Arc Thames W4CPD has been designated as the liaison between all three of the ARRL Florida Section ARES programs and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  Thames had the following message for all Florida ARES groups:  “Tropical Storm Ian has its eye set on somewhere in Florida mid-late next week. At this point, almost the entirety of the state is in the cone of uncertainty. I encourage you to you prepare your homes and families while there is time ahead of the storm. I also encourage all ARES and other communications teams across the state to prepare and test their equipment this weekend since there is so much uncertainty of the path of the storm.

I am actively in contact with the state ESF-2 team and have been asked to prepare volunteers for possible deployment to counties that may not have enough amateur radio volunteers. There are many counties that may end up with a significant need for amateur radio operators to staff shelters and augment local ARES or other communications teams. In preparation for this, if you would be willing to deploy to another county within the state for Ian, please complete this application at this website: https://forms.gle/oeyspzfhPnf9RDdQ6.

It is preferred that you have completed the AUXCOMM course (completion of the AUXCOMM Taskbook is not required) or your ARES Taskbook to level 2. Regardless of your completion of those items, if interested, please fill out the application as soon as possible. Please remember, at no time do we “self-deploy.” Any deployment notices will come either via myself or David Byrum from the State or possibly via your local agencies.

We will also need experienced net control stations that can operate an Emergency HF Net in support of the counties in the impacted areas. If you have a strong station that can transmit and receive well throughout the state, please complete this registration form – https://arrl-nfl.org/emncs/

In addition, we have come to the difficult decision to postpone the statewide exercise/SET that was planned for October 1. For those counties that had signed up, please keep your inject packets. We will announce the replacement date in the coming months.”

Bobby Graves KB5HAV, the Net Manager of the Hurricane Watch Net announced earlier today that the Hurricane Watch Net will not activate today, but an announcement will be made tomorrow, Monday September 25, by 1130 EDT as to when the Hurricane Watch Net will be activated.  The net frequencies are 14.325 KHz on 20 Meters during the day and 7268 KHz on 40 Meters at night, or both frequencies could be active at the same if band conditions warrant both frequencies to be activated.  Please leave these frequencies open for the time being and especially when these nets are active as they will be disseminating National Hurricane Center (NHC) bulletins, and coordinating the transmission of weather reports from the affected areas to the NHC.  For more information you may go to the Hurricane Watch Net website at https://www.hwn.org.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IAN – 2000 EDT – 9/24/22

Tropical Storm Ian did become better organized over the day and is now beginning the process of slowly strengthening, eventually into either a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…14.6N 77.1W
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI…690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND CAYMAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this afternoon. The associated deep convection shows increased signs of organization, and the deep-layer shear appears to have diminished over the cyclone based on more extensive upper-level outflow noted in visible satellite imagery. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found 850-mb peak flight level winds of 44 kt and several SFMR retrievals greater than 40 kt, while dropsonde data suggest the minimum pressure has not changed much since the previous flight. A blend of these data support an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain 265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is expected to significantly strengthen over the next few days as it moves within a low shear environment over SSTs greater than 30 deg C in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the structure of the cyclone continues to improve and Ian develops an inner core, rapid intensification (RI) appears very likely. The SHIPS-RII probabilities continue to highlight this potential, with a 66 percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast has been raised substantially through 96 h, and it now shows Ian reaching major hurricane strength by late Monday before it nears western Cuba. These changes closely follow the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, although there remains guidance even higher than the current forecast. Ian is forecast to remain a major hurricane as it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Environmental conditions could become less favorable late in the period due to southerly shear associated with the aforementioned trough, but Ian is expected to remain a largeand powerful hurricane through the period.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remains at a Level 3 Activation, as several ARES groups in the section are on standby for possible deployment by the middle of next week.  A Level 3 Activation is a Standby status, when there is a possibility of one or more ARES groups in any of the ten counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section being activated to provide services to their served agencies.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities as soon as possible and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

Arc Thames W4CPD has been designated as the liaison between all three of the ARRL Florida Section ARES programs and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  Thames had the following message for all Florida ARES groups:  “Tropical Storm Ian has its eye set on somewhere in Florida mid-late next week. At this point, almost the entirety of the state is in the cone of uncertainty. I encourage you to you prepare your homes and families while there is time ahead of the storm. I also encourage all ARES and other communications teams across the state to prepare and test their equipment this weekend since there is so much uncertainty of the path of the storm.

I am actively in contact with the state ESF-2 team and have been asked to prepare volunteers for possible deployment to counties that may not have enough amateur radio volunteers. There are many counties that may end up with a significant need for amateur radio operators to staff shelters and augment local ARES or other communications teams. In preparation for this, if you would be willing to deploy to another county within the state for Ian, please complete this application at this website: https://forms.gle/oeyspzfhPnf9RDdQ6.

It is preferred that you have completed the AUXCOMM course (completion of the AUXCOMM Taskbook is not required) or your ARES Taskbook to level 2. Regardless of your completion of those items, if interested, please fill out the application as soon as possible. Please remember, at no time do we “self-deploy.” Any deployment notices will come either via myself or David Byrum from the State or possibly via your local agencies.

We will also need experienced net control stations that can operate an Emergency HF Net in support of the counties in the impacted areas. If you have a strong station that can transmit and receive well throughout the state, please complete this registration form – https://arrl-nfl.org/emncs/

In addition, we have come to the difficult decision to postpone the statewide exercise/SET that was planned for October 1. For those counties that had signed up, please keep your inject packets. We will announce the replacement date in the coming months.”

Bobby Graves KB5HAV, the Net Manager of the Hurricane Watch Net has indicated that an announcement will be made tomorrow, Sunday September 25, as to when the Hurricane Watch Net will be activated.  The net frequencies are 14.325 KHz on 20 Meters during the day and 7268 KHz on 40 Meters at night, or both frequencies could be active at the same if band conditions warrant both frequencies to be activated.  Please leave these frequencies open for the time being and especially when these nets are active as they will be disseminating National Hurricane Center (NHC) bulletins, and coordinating the transmission of weather reports from the affected areas to the NHC.  For more information you may go to the Hurricane Watch Net website at https://www.hwn.org.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE – 2000 EDT – 9/23/22

At 0500 EDT this morning, Invest 98L, which had been heading on a west to west-northwest track through the southern Caribbean Sea, finally acquired full tropical characteristics and the National Hurricane Center declared Invest 98L to be Tropical Depression Nine.

As a result of the formation of Tropical Depression #9 and the projected path very possibility having an impact on the ARRL West Central Florida Section and the State of Florida as a whole, daily WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETINS are now initiated and will continue dissemination until the threat from Tropical Depression #9, which is currently forecast to eventually become Tropical Storm Ian, is abated.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…14.8N 71.5W
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 720 MI…1160 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Jamaica

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The organization of the depression has slightly improved since this morning. The low-level center has been decoupled from the deep convection for much of the day, but in recent satellite imagery it appears the center may be drawing closer to a more recent burst of convective activity. Unfortunately, earlier scatterometer data missed the center of the cyclone, and the satellite intensity estimates still range from 25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to investigate the system this evening.

The system is still moving west-northwestward at 290/13 kt, but it is expected to turn westward tonight and continue on that heading through Saturday as a ridge develops to its north. Then, a deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to erode the ridge into early next week. This should result in a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest while the cyclone passes near the Cayman Islands early Monday and approaches western Cuba Monday night. Once again, the global models have shifted westward this cycle during this period, and there remains increased track uncertainty late in the forecast period once the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted westward from 48-120 h, and it lies near or slightly east of the latest track consensus aids.

Recent satellite trends suggest the cyclone may already be nearing a lower shear environment, and once that occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear very conducive for strengthening through early next week. As the cyclone moves within a moist and unstable environment over sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, it is forecast to rapidly intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue strengthening while it approaches western Cuba on Monday night. The very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should allow for more strengthening once it crosses Cuba, and the NHC forecast once again shows the system approaching the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by the middle of next week.

Based on the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

Due to the potential threat to the ARRL West Central Florida Section and the State of Florida, Mike Douglas W4MDD, Section Manager of the ARRL West Central Florida Section, in consultation with Christine Duez K4KJN, Section Emergency Coordinator, announced that ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES will go to a Level 3 Activation.  A Level 3 Activation is a Standby status, when there is a possibility of one or more ARES groups in any of the ten counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section being activated to provide services to their served agencies.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Several ARES groups are already on standby status in case they are requested to activate by their local Emergency Management agencies.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities as soon as possible and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Depression Nine will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

CHARLOTTE AMATEUR RADIO SOCIETY SCHEDULES WINLINK 2000 DRILL

The Charlotte Amateur Radio Society plans to conduct an emergency communications exercise to test WinLink Peer-to-Peer communications on Saturday, September 17, 2022 from 1000 until 1200.  This exercise is part of the Charlotte Amateur Radio Society’s long-term multi-part educational  program to ensure that radio amateurs in our area have a way to grow and practice the skills that may be used in a variety of emergency communications situations.

This exercise aims to evaluate our ability to pass digital traffic using WinLink Peer-to-Peer
communications through VARA FM.  We will have two control stations operating in Charlotte County. Our West County Control Station will operate WinLink on 144.300 MHz and our East County Control Station will operate WinLink in VARA FM on 144.330 MHz. For this exercise, questions may be directed over the WX4E linked repeater system on 146.745 (-) and 444.975 (+), both with a PL tone of 136.50.  Remember, this is a WinLink Peer-to-Peer contact.

Each participant will have three tasks during this exercise:  (1) Deliver a Field Situation Report to the local control station P2P – Locate the WinLink Template under Standard Templates / General Forms / Field Situation Report.  (2) After delivering your Field Situation Report, the Control Station will prepare an Emergency Bulletin to your WinLink address. They will need time to process your bulletin after receiving your Filed Station Report. Retrieve the current Emergency Bulletin from your local control station P2P.(3) Read and follow the instructions on the Emergency Bulletin.

Upon completion of the task listed above, each participant is free to secure their station.
Licensed Amateur radio operators from Charlotte County and the directly surrounding counties that are not CARS members are encouraged to visit the CARS website at http://carsfl.org for information about how they can help on the day of the event from their own radios.

The information in this press release was provided courtesy of Doug Young KM4LKC of the Charlotte Amateur Radio Society.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

SECTION ARES NET CANCELLATION FOR LABOR DAY

In observance of Labor Day on Monday September 5th, 2022, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net scheduled for Monday September 5th, 2022 on the NI4CE Repeater System at 1930 EDT is cancelled.  This net will resume normal operation on Monday September 12th, 2022.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net scheduled for Saturday September 3rd, 2022 on 3940 KHz at 0730 or immediately following the Florida Phone Traffic Net will operate as scheduled, as well as all other Section nets will continue to operate as scheduled. The ARRL West Central Florida Section wishes everyone a Happy Labor Day weekend.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

NEXT SECTION ARES LUNCHEON AND MEETING DATE AND VENUE SET

The date and venue for the Fall 2022 ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Luncheon and ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting have been set.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Luncheon will be held at 1100 EDT on Saturday October 29, 2022, at the Golden Corral located at 815 Providence Road, Brandon, FL 33511.  The Golden Corral is on the west side of Brandon, very close to the east side of I-75.   The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting will be held at 1300 EDT on Saturday October 29, 2022, at the Hillsborough County Public Safety Operations Complex located at 9450 E. Columbus Dr., Tampa, FL 33619. The Hillsborough County Public Safety Operations Complex is home to the Hillsborough County Emergency Operations Center and is located on the east side of Tampa, very close to the west side of I-75.

As is traditional, the Section ARES Meeting will be simultaneously conducted on Zoom and on the Section YouTube channel which is located at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFA4-HEjr-lYMFisVG_Nk5A .  The Zoom meeting information for the Section ARES Meeting has been published and is located on the Section ARES page located at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

9th ANNUAL TECHCON DATE AND VENUE SET

The date and venue for the 9th Annual TECHCON have been set.  The date for the 9th Annual TECHCON, the Annual Technical Conference for the ARRL West Central Florida Section, is Friday February 24, 2023 and Saturday February 25, 2023.  The venue for the 9th Annual TECHCON will be the Hillsborough County Public Safety Operations Complex, located at 9450 E. Columbus Dr., Tampa, FL 33519, on the east side of Tampa, just on the west side of I-75.

The 9th Annual TECHCON will be a face to face conference but also will be available for viewing via Zoom teleconferencing once again this year.  The 9th Annual TECHCON will see a resumption of the Friday Afternoon Workshop, for the first time since 2020.

The presentations for TECHCON will be recorded and available for viewing on the Section’s YouTube channel immediately after the conclusion of TECHCON whch is located at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFA4-HEjr-lYMFisVG_Nk5A.

Registration for the 9th Annual TECHCON is now open.  You may register to either attend or make a presentation for TECHCON at http://arrlwcf.org/section-forms/wcftechconfregistration/.  For more information about TECHCON you may go to the TECHCON webpage on the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-special-events/wcftechconference/

END OF PRESS RELEASE

INFORMATION FOR THE MEMORIAL SERVICE FOR BEN HENLEY KI4IGX

Ben Henley KI4IGX, the former Section Emergency Coordinator for the ARRL West Central Florida Section from 2015-2020, became a Silent Key on Wednesday July 20, 2022.  See WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE #22-19 at http://arrlwcf.org/news/2022/07/25/wcf-section-press-release-22-19/ for the full announcement of the passing of Ben Henley KI4IGX.

The memorial service for Ben Henley KI4IGX, will be held on Saturday, July 30th, 2022 at  1100 EDT, at the Sebring Christian Church located at 4514 Hammock Rd, Sebring, FL 33872.  For location map, please go to Google Maps at https://goo.gl/maps/DHSNQfCAE5ahGYcu8.

The memorial service information was obtained courtesy of the Highlands County Amateur Radio Club website at https://highlandsamateurradio.com/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

FORMER SECTION EMERGENCY COORDINATOR BEN HENLEY KI4IGX IS A SILENT KEY

Ben Henley KI4IGX, who was the Section Emergency Coordinator for the ARRL West Central Florida Section from 2015-2020 became a Silent Key on Wednesday July 20, 2022, after a protracted battle with congestive heart failure and ischemia, and had been awaiting a heart transplant for several years.  Henley was 52 years old.

Henley obtained his Technician class amateur radio license in 2004 an upgraded to General class in 2016.  It was Henley’s experience in emergency management and commercial two way radio that led him to become a licensed amateur radio operator.  Henley was instrumental in helping to foster a working partnership between Highland County Emergency Management and Highlands County ARES, and providing them with logistical support to help carry out their mission.  Henley was also instrumental in helping to foster the concept of the three ARRL Florida Section ARES programs as being partners working together with the State EOC as one organization during emergency situations.

Henley in his professional career was in information technology, first at a local hospital in Highlands County, then a firefighter with the Highlands County Fire Department, and then as Emergency Management Coordinator with Highlands County Emergency Management.  During his tenure with Highlands County Emergency Management, Henley was the 911 coordinator for a number of years, provided information technology support, commercial two way radio support, and had considerable input into the design of the current Highlands County Emergency Operations Center.

At press time, there was no information available on a memorial service.

END OF PRESS RELEASE