Category: News

TROPICAL STORM ETA – 1900 EST – 11/09/20

Tropical Depression Eta crossed the Florida Straits, making landfall and crossing the Florida Keys last night, and has turned and moved southwest of the State of Florida.  However Eta is still close enough to have an influence on our weather for the next few days and the timing and direction of Eta still have much uncertainty.  For the majority of the upcoming week we will experience breezy winds out of the east

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…23.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 140 MI…220 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1600 EST today, “Eta’s convective pattern now consists of mainly a compact ring of inner-core convection with cloud tops of -60C to -70C. The earlier main outer convective band located in the northeast quadrant has weakened considerably, and the inflow into that feature is now being shunted westward into Eta’s inner-core region. Visible and water vapor satellite images also indicate that weak anticyclonic cirrus outflow has recently developed over the inner core. The last recon pass through Eta a few hours ago showed a pressure rise to 997 mb that was followed by a pressure decrease to 995 mb on the last pass. Both flight-level and SFMR-derived surface winds had also decreased and only supported around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is southwestward, or 235/14 kt. Mid- and upper-level water vapor images show a cut-off low located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. This feature, in conjunction with a deep-layer ridge extending across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce northeasterly flow that will keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours. However, the cyclone will gradually slow down during that time as a broad deep-layer trough moving across the central and south-central U.S. weakens the ridge over the Gulf, causing Eta to stall or make a small loop around 36 hours. By 48-60 hours and beyond, the aforementioned trough is forecast to lift out to the northeast, allowing at least some of the Gulf ridge to build back in, slowing down Eta’s poleward progress or even possibly trapping the cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The global and regional models are in very good agreement on the developing track scenario through about 72 hours, and then diverge significantly thereafter, with the bulk of the guidance taking a much weaker Eta northwestward or northward into strong shear conditions. However, the Navy COAMPS-TC model strengthens Eta to near major hurricane status and takes the cyclone northeastward, while the HMON model also intensifies the cyclone into a major hurricane, but leaves it trapped over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latter two scenarios are considered to be outliers due to the abundance of very dry air surrounding Eta and an expected increase in the deep-layer shear to more than 25 kt by 96 and 120 hours. The new official forecast track is to the left or west of the previous advisory track, but not as far west as the consensus models, which take a significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone toward the north-central Gulf coast.

Some re-strengthening appears more likely now that Eta has shed a lot of outer convective baggage and has become more compact, and has developed a donut ring of inner-core convection and some modest upper-level outflow in all quadrants. Eta’s best opportunity for intensification should come during the next 36 hours when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the deep-layer vertical wind shear gradually decreases to less than 10 kt. Although occasional intrusions of very dry air will prevent rapid intensification from occurring, some gradual strengthening seems to be in order given the other favorable environmental conditions and the cyclone’s new smaller size. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause steady weakening of the cyclone through end of the forecast period. However, if Eta takes a more northwestward track like some of the NHC model guidance is indicating, then the cyclone will get sheared more and weaken sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and but is lower than intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, which re-strengthen Eta to a 65-70 kt hurricane.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time, all watches and warnings for the State of Florida were dropped earlier today.

Even though the threat from Tropical Storm Eta is diminished to the State of Florida for the time being, everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Stay prepared in case communications services through asmateur radio are requested by our served agencies later this week.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

 

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1900 EST tomorrow evening, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ETA – 1800 EST – 11/08/20

Tropical Depression Eta reacquired tropical storm strength, crossed Cuba earlier today, emerged into the Florida Straits, and is now turning towards the northwest and west and headed for the Florida Keys.  For the majority of the upcoming week we will experience breezy winds out of the east with some gusts that could approach tropical storm strength particularly early in the week.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…23.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1600 EST today, “Eta’s appearance in radar and satellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory and the last reconnaissance mission a few hours ago, with a ragged mid-level eye-like feature briefly wrapping up for less than an hour before quickly decaying. Average velocity values from the Miami, Florida, NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar have occasionally been as high as 60 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft ASL to the north and northeast of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta around 0000Z this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast reasoning from the last 36 hours. Eta is now moving northwestward around the northeastern side of an upper-level low that has formed over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. The combined easterly flow between the upper-low and a deep-layer ridge located near the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast is expected to force Eta westward overnight and then turn the cyclone slowly southwestward in the 24-48 hour period, with the cyclone possibly stalling just west of the lower Florida Keys when steering currents collapse around 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to move from the U.S. west coast eastward over the central U.S. by 96 hours, and then over the eastern U.S. by 120 hours, which will erode the western portion of the ridge and act to gradually lift Eta northeastward toward northern Florida. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted slightly northward, possibly due to the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft synoptic track dropsonde observations from earlier this morning, and now shows the center of Eta making landfall in the middle or lower Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. The new NHC official track forecast has been nudged northward close to the consensus models HCCA and TCVA. It should be noted that although the latest model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur, well to the north and east of the center.

Satellite imagery indicates that a pronounced dry slot has wrapped into the eastern portion of Eta’s circulation, with radar data suggesting that it has occasionally penetrated into the inner core region as well, eroding the thunderstorm activity in the southern portion of the aforementioned eye-like feature. However, with the vertical shear forecast to steadily decrease from the current 25 kt down to less than 10 kt by 24 hours while Eta is moving over 28.5 deg C SSTs, strengthening is expected late tonight during the convective maximum period and continuing into Monday, resulting in Eta intensifying into a hurricane during that time. Environmental conditions are expected to remain somewhat favorable for Eta to maintain hurricane status through 60 hours, followed by gradual weakening from 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear of 20-25 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and remains above the model guidance through 36 hours and is a little below the guidance thereafter.

Based on ASCAT data and surface observations, the wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Hardee, Sarasota, and Manatee Counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Highlands, Desoto, and Charlotte Counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section and from Lee County on the west coast to Brevard County on the east coast, including Glades, Hendry, and Okeechobee Counties.  Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Miami-Dade County.

At the present time, the only requests that we are aware of is a request by Highlands County Emergency Management for Highlands County ARES personnel to stand by in case their communications services are required.  All SKYWARN spotters should monitor the weather and report any weather that meets the reporting criteria to the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin, as their is a slight risk for tornado activity in South Central and Southwest Florida and some flooding across Charlotte and Lee Counties, according to the Hurricane Local Statement issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin late this afternoon.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should have any equipment checks completed and be ready to activate if our services are requested by any of our served agencies.  Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

 

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1900 EST tomorrow evening, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA – 1900 EST – 11/07/20

Tropical Depression Eta continues its slow track toward Cuba and at its present forward speed should enter the Florida straits tomorrow afternoon and approach the Florida keys and southern coastline on Monday before making a forecast turn to the left into the eastern Gulf of Mexico after merging with a low pressure system.  For the majority of the upcoming week we will experience breezy winds out of the east with some gusts that could approach tropical storm strength particularly early in the week.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…20.4N 80.2W
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI…600 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line
* Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1600 EST today, “An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb. Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satellite imagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged in radar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currently being affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching the inner core from the west.

The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to the forecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid-to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Eta northeastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring the center near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h, the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, with Eta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keys
and south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidance has shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to the south near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jet mission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise. The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the 96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as a result.

The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However, at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time, a Tropical Storm Watch for Charlotte County is the only watch and or warning in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Collier, Monroe (including the Florida Keys), Glades, Hendry, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, and Okeechobee Counties. A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Miami-Dade, Monroe (including the Florida Keys), and Collier Counties in the ARRL Southern Florida Section

At the present time, there have not been any requests from any of our served agencies for communications services via amateur radio.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should take this opportunity to re-check any equipment and supplies that would be used, just in case our services are requested.   Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.  Please note that the advisories are now being issued at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 hours Eastern Standard Time, due to returning to Eastern Standard Time last Sunday.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

 

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1900 EST tomorrow evening, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA – 1900 EST – 11/06/20

Tropical Depression Eta continues its slow track toward Cuba and eventually approaching the southern Florida coastline before making a forecast turn to the left into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  It is worth noting that the three day forecast cone now touches the southern part of Charlotte County and the five day forecast cone now intersects several coastal counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…17.7N 85.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1600 EST today, “Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near 1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt.  There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward.  While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance.  The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone’s life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this
morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time there are no watches or warnings for the State of Florida and the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  However watches may be required as early as later this evening or tomorrow morning for the southern part of the State of Florida and the Florida Keys.    At the present time, there have not been any requests from any of our served agencies for communications services via amateur radio.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should take this opportunity to re-check any equipment and supplies that would be used, just in case our services are requested.   Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.  Please note that the advisories are now being issued at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 hours Eastern Standard Time, due to returning to Eastern Standard Time last Sunday.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

 

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1900 EST tomorrow evening, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA – 1900 EST – 11/05/20

After a very busy and exhausting hurricane season, that has included twenty eight named tropical storms, of which eleven became hurricanes and five were Category 3 or greater, and with 11 United States coastal landfalls, we must now focus on Tropical Depression Eta, which made landfall on the coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday afternoon.  Eta has been slowly creeping west through Nicaragua and Honduras and is now re-emerging over the southwestern Carribean Sea.  With the increased threat to the State of Florida, these daily special bulletins commence distribution.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…16.0N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM WNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cayman Islands

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1600 EST today, “The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds occuring well to the northeast of the center.

The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba,with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In addition, there is a significant speed difference between the faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about 72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the guidance from 72-120 h.

The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba later tonight or on Friday.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time the impacts to the southern part of the State of Florida and the ARRL West Central Florida Section are not that well known due to the course of the storm not being more defined.  At the present time, there have not been any requests from any of our served agencies for communications services via amateur radio.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should take this opportunity to re-check any equipment and supplies that would be used, just in case our services are requested.   Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.  Please note that the advisories are now being issued at 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 hours Eastern Standard Time, due to returning to Eastern Standard Time last Sunday.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

 

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued around 1900 EST tomorrow evening, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

NOMINATIONS FOR 2020 WHITE AWARD ARE NOW OPEN

Nominations are now being accepted for the 2020 White Award.  This award is given each year to the amateur radio operator who has made the greatest contribution to amateur radio in the ARRL West Central Florida Section. The White Award was instituted in 2016 in honor of Ellen White W1YL, who was a Section Communications Manager in the 1950’s, which was changed to Section Manager in 1979, and an ARRL staffer in numerous positions at ARRL Headquarters until her retirement.

Nominations can be made on the Contact Form on the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/section-forms/contact-info/.  Nominations will close on Saturday December 5th, 2020 and the award will be presented to the recipient on Saturday December 12th, 2020 during the ARRL forum at the Tampa Bay Hamfest.

For more information on the White Award you may go to the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-special-events/white-award/

END OF PRESS RELEASE

 

USA MOTOR COACH HAMFEST AND ROD RUN SCHEDULED FOR 11/14/20

 

The USA Motor Coach Hamfest and Rod Run is scheduled for Saturday November 14, 2020.  The hamfest will be held at the USA Motor Coach facility located at 4501 Ulmerton Road, in Clearwater.  This hamfest was organized by members of SPARC to replace the SPARCFest that was scheduled for November 14, 2020 but was cancelled due to COVID 19 restrictions placed upon Freedom Lake Park in Pinellas Park, FL.

The USA Motor Coach Hamfest will be a hamfest tailgate and hot rod car show combined together.  This will give amateur radio operators a somewhat unique opportunity to go to a tailgate hamfest and hot rod car show all at the same place and time.  The hamfest will open at 0800 hours and there is no admission cost for those tailgating and or those attending.  The organizers request that you wear a face mask when attending.

For all the details of the USA Motor Coach Hamfest and Rod Run you may go to the following website, which will include directions, a map, and other information:  https://bw.billl.net/usa-coach-ham-fest-and-rod-run/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

SPARCFEST 2020 CANCELLED – TAMPA BAY HAMFEST STILL SCHEDULED

On Wednesday October 14, the St. Petersburg Amateur Radio Club, as known by the name SPARC, announced on their website that the SPARCFEST 2020 that was to be held on Saturday November 14, 2020 at Freedom Lake Park in Pinellas Park was cancelled.  According to a statement on the SPARC website, the cancellation was due to a limitation of 50 persons being able to be in Freedom Lake Park.

On Wednesday October 15, the Florida Gulf Coast Amateur Radio Council met via Zoom and decided to go ahead and conduct the Tampa Bay Hamfest 2020 but with some modifications.  Bill Willams AG4QX, President of the Florida Gulf Coast Amateur Radio Council, issued the following statement on the FGCARC website, “October 14th, the Florida Gulf Coast Amateur Radio Council met and decided to have the Hamfest as scheduled but with some changes to accommodate the Covid 19 situation.  The major change is that we will not be using the Expo building.  The whole Hamfest will take place in the block between Lemon St and Woodrow Wilson St including the two buildings there.  Most of the selling will be in the tailgate area.  Everything is not yet settled so we have suspended sales of tickets for a few weeks while details are worked out.  Thank you for your patience and stay tuned for further details.”  The ARRL West Central Florida Section is still planning on having a booth at the Tampa Bay Hamfest and to hold the ARRL forum as circumstances permit.  As more details are worked out, further information will be released in a future WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

ARRL WCF SECTION ARES MEETING FALL 2020 TO BE HELD VIA ZOOM.

The Fall 2020 ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting will be held on Saturday October 17, 2020 at 1300 EDT, as a Zoom meeting, instead of a “face to face” meeting that was originally planned earlier this year, due to the COVID-19 situation.  The information to log into the Zoom meeting is located in the Section events calendar at the following address: http://arrlwcf.org/event/wcf-section-ares-meeting-fall-2020/.

The Fall 2020 ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Luncheon is cancelled due to the cancellation of the in-person meeting.

The Zoom meeting will be open for attendees to check in 15 minutes before the meeting is scheduled to start at 1300, to allow participants time to log in and be sure their video and or audio is functioning.  Everyone is welcome to attend the Zoom meeting, but due to the terms of our Zoom account we are limited to a seating of 100.

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PASCO COUNTY HAMFEST FALL 2020 IS CANCELLED

On Monday September 14,2020, it was publicly announced that the Pasco County Fall Hamfest 2020, that had been scheduled for Saturday September 26, 2020, had been cancelled.  Don Nystrom KA2KDP, President of the Suncoast Amateur Radio Club, which sponsors the bi-annual Pasco County Hamfest, stated that the Gunn Highway Flea Market which had provided space for the hamfest had recently been sold and was no longer available to hold the hamfest.

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