Author: Darrell Davis KT4WX

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE – 2100 EST – 11/07/22

Just when we all in the ARRL West Central Florida Section began to breathe a little easier, and with only 23 days left to go in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we are now dealing with yet another tropical cyclone.  The area of disturbed weather that was north of Puerto Rico, finally was declared to be Subtropical Storm Nicole at 0500 EST this morning.

Subtropical Storm Nicole is expected to turn westward, then slightly southwestward in response to high pressure to the north, and then with an approaching cold front and trough, will eventually turn to the north and then northeast.  The timing of the high pressure moving out and the arrival of next trough and cold front will determine the final path of Nicole.  With the threat to the State of Florida and the ARRL West Central Florida Section, we are now initiating WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETINS on Nicole.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EST…0100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…26.7N 70.8W
ABOUT 425 MI…685 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 K /H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Nicole’s structure has changed little today. There is some limited convective activity near the center with a large band of showers and thunderstorms extending well north and east over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system this afternoon and has found flight-level and SFMR winds supporting tropical storm strength about 80 n mi northwest of the center, but earlier scatterometer data indicated that the strongest winds are likely occurring in the band well removed from the center. The aircraft reported that the pressure is down to around 1000 mb. The initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt and is based on a blend of the aircraft and earlier satellite wind data.

Nicole is moving northwestward or 310/8 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue overnight as the storm moves around the northeastern portion of a decaying upper-level low. On Tuesday, Nicole is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as a strong mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern United States.  This motion should bring the center of Nicole near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward, which should allow Nicole to turn west-northwestward or northwestward as it approaches and then moves over the Florida Peninsula. Later in the period, a large mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is expected to cause Nicole to recurve northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the forecast period, and the confidence in this portion of the track forecast is relatively high. The new NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but shows a track slightly farther inland along the southeast U.S. coast on day 4.  There is increasing along-track spread after 72 hours, with the GFS and UKMET slower than the latest ECMWF. The NHC forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids at those times.

Nicole’s sprawling structure and nearby dry mid-level air suggest that it will take some time for the cyclone to begin strengthening.  Warm ocean temperatures that Nicole will be traversing should allow for a gradual increase in convection near the center, and this combined with low vertical wind shear, is expected to result in gradual moistening of the environment around Nicole. Most of the dynamical models indicate that Nicole will be able to develop a smaller inner core and transition into a tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours, and once that occurs, a faster rate of intensification is anticipated. The latest NHC intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and calls for the system to be at or near hurricane strength when it passes near or over the northwest Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. The official wind speed forecast is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, and near the most recent dynamical hurricane models. Regardless of Nicole’s exact intensity, the storm’s large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during the next few days.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At 1613 EST today, the National Hurricane Center in Miami issued Tropical Storm Watches for Polk, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto Counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  However more watches or warnings will likely be required in the next 12 to 24 hours as Nicole comes closer to the State of Florida.

Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has gone to a Level 3 activation in case they are requested to provide communications for shelters.  Other ARES groups are monitoring their situations carefully in case they are requested to activate.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to rush to completion any preparation activities in the next 24 hours.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Subtropical Storm Nicole and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/072333.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/072100.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/072057.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL172022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EST advisory on Subtropical Storm Nicole, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

SECTION ARES MEETING FOR FALL 2022 GOING VIRTUAL ONLY

Due to several schedule conflicts that could not be avoided, Christine Duez K4KJN, Section Emergency Coordinator, recently announced that the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting for the Fall of 2022 would be held virtually as a Zoom meeting on Saturday October 29, 2022 at 1400 EDT.

The ARRL West Cental Florida Section ARES Luncheon scheduled for Saturday October 29, 2022 at 1100 EDT at the Golden Corral on west side of Brandon is cancelled.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting originally scheduled for Saturday October 29, 2022 at 1300 EDT, to be in-person at the Hillsborough County EOC is also cancelled, and as previously announced, will be held on Zoom as a virtual meeting only at 1400 EDT.

The Zoom meeting information is published on the ARES page on the ARRL West Central Florida Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

HURRICANE IAN – 2100 EDT – 9/29/22

Hurricane Ian, which was a Category 4 at landfall yesterday, crossed the State of Florida and exited the Florida east coast earlier this afternoon as a Tropical Storm.  Ian is now off of the Florida east coast, east of St. Augustine, and has re-intensified to a Category 1 hurricane.  Ian is headed for a second landfall in the United States just north of Charleston, South Carolina, and move inland and travel just east of Rock Hill, SC and Charlotte, NC as a Tropical Storm.

Conditions over the ARRL West Central Florida Section will continue to improve tonight and tomorrow.  Now over two million people in the State of Florida are without electrical power and many have damage to their homes.  So if you are in the dark tonight and or have damage to your home, you are not alone.  Help your friends and neighbors if you are able to do so.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…29.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 215 MI…350 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Flagler/Volusia Line to Cape Fear
* Neuse River
* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Savannah River to Cape Fear

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Ian remains a hybrid tropical cyclone with characteristics of an extratropical low, including a comma-pattern on satellite images and some frontal features in the outer circulation. The cyclone continues to have a warm core, however, and all indications are that it will re-develop strong convection over the center overnight.  Based on Melbourne Doppler radar velocity data of persistent 70-80-kt winds from 5-10 thousand feet, and earlier sustained winds of about 60 kt near that band from an observation in New Smyrna Beach, the initial wind speed is raised to 65 kt. This makes Ian a hurricane again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly through Ian this evening and will provide a
better intensity estimate.

Ian finally appears to be making more of a turn to the north-northeast this afternoon. The hurricane should turn to the north overnight due to the incoming trough diving southward over the southern United States and then north-northwestward on Saturday with an increase in forward speed. While the overall synoptic pattern is similar in all of the models, Ian has been uncooperative and remains right of the previous track. Thus, the new forecast is adjusted to the east, and lies east of the model consensus.  Assuming Ian re-develops thunderstorms near the core overnight, it should take the expected north-northwest turn, but this shouldn’t be considered a confident forecast yet. Because of the
uncertainty, the Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward into North Carolina to Cape Fear.

The hurricane is moving over the Gulf Stream for the next day or so, where it has some time for further re-intensification.  Additionally, the trough interaction should provide a baroclinic energy kick. These factors point to some strengthening before landfall tomorrow. The new forecast is close to the GFS and regional hurricane models and is a bit stronger than before. It should be emphasized that while we don’t expect Ian to be a classic
hurricane at landfall, this does not diminish the danger it poses.  Strong winds and storm surge will also extend far from the center and will begin well before the center arrives.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of 1700 EDT today, all of the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings were discontinued earlier today.  The only watches or warnings still in effect are:

• Rip Current Statement:  Coastal Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties
• Flood Warnings:  Peace River in Polk, Hardee, Desota, and Charlotte Counties.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remains at a Level 1 alert until more ARES groups.  Pasco County ARES and Manatee County ARES demobilized earlier today.  As far as we know, all other ARES groups are still partially or fully mobilized.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer:  http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/.  Any volunteer assignment that become available will be in the recovery phase.  Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.

The Florida Tri-Section ARES Net will continue to operate for the duration on approximately the following schedule:

• 0800-2000 EDT 7.247 MHz or 7.247 MHz
• 2000-0800 EDT 3.940 MHz or 3.950 MHz

The Hurricane Watch Net is continuing operations for Hurricane Ian on 14.325 MHz and on 7.268 MHz.  The following net schedule was obtained from the Hurricane Watch Net website that goes into full effect for the duration of Hurricane Ian.

• Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

This will be the last special bulletin for Hurricane Ian, unless it somehow threatens the ARRL West Central Florida Section, which is very unlikely.

SECTION NET CANCELLATIONS FOR 9/29/22

Due to the impact of Hurricane Ian in the ARRL West Central Florida Section and ongoing priority to emergency communications the Eagle Net scheduled for this evening at 2030 hours and the West Central Florida Section Technical Net scheduled for this evening at 2100 or immediately following the Eagle Net have both been cancelled.

The Eagle Net will resume normal operation on Friday September 30, 2022 at 2030 EDT and the West Central Florida Section Technical Net will resume normal operation next Thursday October 6, 2022 at 2100 EDT.

Everyone be safe and just remember, if you are without power you are not alone.  Nearly two million people in Florida are in the same position as yourself.  Take care of one another.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE IAN – 1900 EDT – 9/28/22

Hurricane Ian is now Category 3, made landfall around 1505 EDT this afternoon at Cayo Costa Island in Charlotte Harbor.  The eye of Ian is now moving inland up through Charlotte County and approaching the Desoto County line.  The eye of Ian is expected to move through Desoto and Hardee through this evening and through Polk County in the early morning hours of 9/29/22.   Conditions will slowly begin to improve late tomorrow and on Friday.  By now over a million people in West Central Florida are without power and by the time this bulletin is issued, that number could have risen significantly.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…26.9N 82.0W
ABOUT 5 MI…10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER…INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT. The minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity was estimated near 130 kt. While there hasn’t been much in situ data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual reduction in winds. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this advisory.

Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on Thursday. While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear, resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall on the southeast U.S. coast. Little change was made to the intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus guidance.

The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt. The aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend. Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction. The trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this new forecast reflects this likelihood.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of 1700 EDT today, all of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is still under a Hurricane Warning, with the exception of Pasco County, which is under a Tropical Storm Warning.  The following tropical watches and warnings weaare in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• Tropical Storm Warning:  Pasco County.
• Hurricane Warning:  Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte Counties on the coast and Polk, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto Counties in the interior. Counties.
• Storm Surge Warning:  Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remains at a Level 1 alert, as all ARES groups in the Section have been activated as of 1100 EDT.  This is the first time that a Section ARES Level 1 alert has been issued since Hurricane Irma in 2017.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should be in a secure location and not attempt any kind of travel until conditions improve.

Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer:  http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/.  Any volunteer assignment that become available will be in the recovery phase.  Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.

The Florida Tri-Section ARES Net will continue to operate for the duration on approximately the following schedule:

• 0800-2000 EDT 7.247 MHz or 7.247 MHz
• 2000-0800 EDT 3.940 MHz or 3.950 MHz

The Hurricane Watch Net is continuing operations for Hurricane Ian on 14.325 MHz and on 7.268 MHz.  The following net schedule was obtained from the Hurricane Watch Net website that goes into full effect for the duration of Hurricane Ian.

• Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE IAN – 1900 EDT – 9/27/22

Hurricane Ian is now Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning.  Ian is now in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving north-northeast towards the Florida west coast and is predicted, as of 1700 today, to make landfall around 1600 to 1800 EDT tomorrow afternoon somewhere near the Charlotte and Sarasota county line, then weaken rapidly once moving inland toward the west side of Polk County.  As we have said before, we will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI…375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.12 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER…INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY’S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY’S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF MARINELAND TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone.

Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast, and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5 track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant re-strengthening is not expected at long range.

The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation. While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus. I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn’t previously under a warning. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of 1700 EDT today, all of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is under a Hurricane Warning, with the exception of Pasco County, which is under a Tropical Storm Warning.  The following tropical watches and warnings are in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• Tropical Storm Warning:  Pasco County.
• Hurricane Warning:  Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte Counties on the coast and Polk, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto Counties in the interior. Counties.
• Storm Surge Warning:  Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties.

As of 1500 EDT today, ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES went to a Level 1 alert, as all ARES groups in the Section have been activated with the exception of Hardee County.  This is the first time that a Section ARES Level 1 alert has been issued since Hurricane Irma in 2017.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel personal preparations should now be complete.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.

Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer:  http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/.  Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.

This evening at 2000 EDT, the Florida Tri-Section ARES Net on either 3940 KHz or 3950 KHz will commence.  The purpose of this net will be to provide HF communications to the State EOC.  The tentative schedule for now will be from:

• 0800-2000 EDT 7.247 MHz or 7.247 MHz
• 2000-0800 EDT 3.940 MHz or 3.950 MHz

The Hurricane Watch Net is continuing operations for Hurricane Ian on 14.325 MHz and on 7.268 MHz.  The following net schedule was obtained from the Hurricane Watch Net website that goes into full effect for the duration of Hurricane Ian.

• Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.

Today, the FCC grants a temporary 60-day waiver to permit amateur data transmissions at a higher symbol rate than currently is permitted by section 97.307(f) of the Commission’s rules, in order to facilitate hurricane relief communications within the United States and its territories.  This will allow PACTOR 4 operation on HF.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE IAN – 2100 EDT – 9/26/22

Hurricane Ian is forecast to continue strengthening into a Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning.  Ian is now moving northwest and will make landfall on the west side of Cuba early tomorrow morning and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow afternoon.  Then, Ian will begin its journey towards the Florida west coast where it will eventually will run somewhat parallel with the Florida west coast and make landfall in the proximity of Hernando and Citrus County late on Thursday or early on Friday.

Also the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch, to a Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm Warning.  Ian is expected to move much more slowly north just off of coast, than was expected yesterday and earlier today.  We will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…20.8N 83.3W
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB…28.50 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…AND ARTEMISA
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER…INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The
NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer
trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.  The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA aids.

Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the
storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model consensus aids.

Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west coast of Florida.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of 1710 EDT today, all of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is either under a Tropical Storm Watch or a Hurricane Watch.  The following tropical watches and warnings are in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• Hurricane Watch:  Pasco County.
• Hurricane Warning:  Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota CountiesHurr
• Tropical Storm Warning:  Polk, Highlands, Hardee, Desoto, and Charlotte Counties.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remains at a Level 2 Alert, as several ARES groups in the section were activated this morning and some of these groups will go to full activation tomorrow.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

The following activations of the following ARES groups were at the requests of their respective Emergency Management agencies:

• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES:  Level 1 Activation – 9/26/22.
• Pasco County ARES/RACES:  Level 2 Activation: 9/26/22, Level 1 Activation: 9/27/22.
• Pinellas County ARES/ACS:  Level 2 Activation – 9/26/22, Level 1 Activation – 9/27/22.

Several other ARES groups are still at a Level 3 activation but may be moving to higher level of activation tomorrow morning, at the request of their served agencies.  All other ARES groups in the remainder of the ARRL West Central Florida Section are at a Level 3 activation for the time being.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any preparedness activities by Tuesday evening, and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer:  http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/.  Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.

Arc Thames W4CPD also announced today, that tomorrow evening at 2000 EDT, will commence Florida Tri-Section ARES Net on either 3940 KHz or 3950 KHz.  The purpose of this net will be to provide HF communications to the State EOC.  The tentative schedule for now will be from:

• 0800-2000 EDT 7.247 MHz or 7.247 MHz
• 2000-0800 EDT 3.940 MHz or 3.950 MHz

The Hurricane Watch Net began operations earlier today for Hurricane Ian on 14.325 MHz and on 7.268 MHz.  The following net schedule was obtained from the Hurricane Watch Net website that goes into full effect for the duration of Hurricane Ian.

• Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 0800 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE IAN – 1300 EDT – 9/26/22

Tropical Storm Ian became Hurricane Ian in the early morning hours.  Ian is forecast to continue strengthening into a Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning.  Also Ian is now moving northwest and eventually to the north.  Also the National Hurricane Center has brought up Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches for much of the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Therefore we are issuing this unscheduled special bulletin due to all the changes  We will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…19.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER…INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this morning. Deep convection has increased within the inner core during the pastseveral hours, with an expanding central dense overcast noted in recent satellite imagery. The inner core structure continues to take shape in radar data, although the eyewall still has a banded appearance and remains open on the west side. Dropsonde data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure has gradually fallen to about 980 mb, and the
initial intensity is raised slightly to 70 kt for this advisory.

The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h.  Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36 h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS) environment. The latest SHIPS-RI probabilities continue to highlight the high likelihood of this scenario, with a 73 percent chance of a 35-kt wind speed increase in 24 h and a 79 percent chance of a 45-kt increase in 36 h. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it shows Ian becoming a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. Ian is forecast to reach its peak intensity in 36 h over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Then, increasing southwesterly shear by 36-48 h is expected to bring an end to the intensification phase. The combination of strong VWS and drier mid-level air will induce weakening thereafter, but Ian is expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.

Ian continues to move northwestward at 325/11 kt. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected during the next day or so as the hurricane moves around the western extent of a mid-level ridge. Then, an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Ian to turn more north-northeastward through Thursday. This track brings
the center of Ian close to the west-central coast of Florida during the middle of the week. An even greater concern is the slower forward motion that is forecast during this period, as the upper trough passes north and east of Ian and the steering currents weaken. This would likely prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along the affected portions of the west coast of Florida, although the roughly shore-parallel track still makes it
difficult to pinpoint exactly what locations will experience the most severe impacts. The track guidance has come into better agreement during the first 72 h of the forecast period, and only a minor eastward adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast in line
with the multi-model consensus aids.

The aircraft data indicate that the 34-kt wind radii in the northeastern quadrant were 20-30 n mi larger than previously estimated, and this has been reflected in the latest forecast.  Based on these changes, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
the middle Florida Keys and extended southward along the southwestern coast of Florida.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is either under a Tropical Storm Watch or a Hurricane Watch.  The following tropical watches and warnings are in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

• Hurricane Watch:  Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties.
• Tropical Storm Watch:  Polk, Highlands, Hardee, Desoto, and Charlotte Counties.

As of 1200 EDT today, ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES has moved to a Level 2 Alert, as several ARES groups in the section were activated this morning and some of these groups will go to full activation tomorrow.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

The following activations of the following ARES groups were at the requests of their respective Emergency Management agencies:

• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES:  Level 1 Activation – 9/26/22.
• Pasco County ARES/RACES:  Level 2 Activation: 9/26/22, Level 1 Activation: 9/27/22.
• Pinellas County ARES/ACS:  Level 2 Activation – 9/26/22, Level 1 Activation – 9/27/22.

Several other ARES groups will be advised later today as to whether they will be activated or continue on stand by status by their respective served agencies.  All other ARES groups in the remainder of the ARRL West Central Florida Section are at a Level 3 activation for the time being.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities by the end of the day, if possible, and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer:  http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/.  Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.

Bobby Graves KB5HAV, the Net Manager of the Hurricane Watch Net announced earlier today that the Hurricane Watch Net will active today with following information obtained from their website.

• Net Activation on Monday at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC) on 14.325.00 MHz. Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate Monday evening on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active overnight or until we lose propagation. If propagation lasts overnight, we will close before the WaterWay Net needs to start.
• Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
• Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IAN – 1800 EDT – 9/25/22

Tropical Storm Ian continues to get slightly better organized, with Ian forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane on Monday morning.  Ian is forecast to continue strengthening into a Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning.  Also Ian is now beginning the turn to the northwest and eventually to the north.  We will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…16.2N 80.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 495 MI…795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The organization of Ian has not changed much since this morning. There have been some small bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm this afternoon, but the activity has not yet led to any notable changes in its structure. In fact, the most persistent convection has been in outer rain bands well to the northeast of the circulation near Jamaica. The SFMR wind data and adjusted flight-level winds from the earlier reconnaissance flights supported surface winds of 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Ian later tonight.

The center of Ian has jogged a bit northward this afternoon, but its longer-term motion is west-northwestward at 300/10 kt. A generally northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and early Tuesday as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or over western Cuba. From there, the track guidance still diverges at days 3-5 as Ian is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and UKMET models still lie on the eastern edge of the guidance and bring the center of Ian over the coast of west-central Florida, while the HWRF and HMON models are on the western side of the envelope and show Ian approaching the central Florida panhandle. Notably, the GFS has trended slightly eastward for the past few cycles, which has brought the multi-model consensus aids a bit eastward as well. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction, but only on the order of 15-20 n mi in the extended range. Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges, since uncertainty is still high and future adjustments may be required.

Although the storm has yet to develop an inner core, the conditions over the northwestern Caribbean Sea appear very likely to support strengthening once it becomes better organized. Some dry environmental air may have limited convection today, but the GFS- and ECMWF- simulated satellite imagery indicate that deep convection will increase during the diurnal maximum period overnight. Then, significant strengthening is expected with low deep-layer shear and high oceanic heat content along the forecast track. There is still strong support for rapid intensification in the latest intensity guidance, and the NHC intensity forecast shows Ian becoming a hurricane on Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. This forecast remains close to the IVCN multi-model consensus, with some model aids including HCCA showing even higher peak intensities. Strong southwesterly shear develops over Ian by 72 h related to interaction with an upper-level trough, and the structure of the cyclone could significantly degrade before landfall given these hostile conditions. However, Ian is likely to have an expanding wind field and will be slowing down by that time, which will have the potential to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts across portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida panhandle.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES currently remains at a Level 3 Activation, as several ARES groups in the section are on standby for possible deployment by early to the  middle of next week.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

Section ARES Activation Levels:
Level 3:   One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2:  One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1:  All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.

The following activations of the following ARES groups were at the requests of their respective Emergency Management agencies:

• Hillsborough County ARES/RACES – Going to a Leve1 activation (full activation) on Monday 9/26/22.
• Pinellas County ARES/ACS will be going to a Level 2 activation (partial activation) on Monday 9/26/22 and to Level 1 activation on Tuesday 9/27/22.
• Pasco County ARES/RACES will be going to a Level 2 activation on Monday 9/26/22 and a Level 1 activation on Tuesday 9/27/22.

All the other ARES groups in the remainder of the ARRL West Central Florida Section are at a Level 3 activation for the time being.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities very shortly and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

This information is being posted in today’s bulletin as it is well worth repeating.  Arc Thames W4CPD has been designated as the liaison between all three of the ARRL Florida Section ARES programs and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  Thames had the following message for all Florida ARES groups:  “Tropical Storm Ian has its eye set on somewhere in Florida mid-late next week. At this point, almost the entirety of the state is in the cone of uncertainty. I encourage you to you prepare your homes and families while there is time ahead of the storm. I also encourage all ARES and other communications teams across the state to prepare and test their equipment this weekend since there is so much uncertainty of the path of the storm.

I am actively in contact with the state ESF-2 team and have been asked to prepare volunteers for possible deployment to counties that may not have enough amateur radio volunteers. There are many counties that may end up with a significant need for amateur radio operators to staff shelters and augment local ARES or other communications teams. In preparation for this, if you would be willing to deploy to another county within the state for Ian, please complete this application at this website: https://forms.gle/oeyspzfhPnf9RDdQ6.

It is preferred that you have completed the AUXCOMM course (completion of the AUXCOMM Taskbook is not required) or your ARES Taskbook to level 2. Regardless of your completion of those items, if interested, please fill out the application as soon as possible. Please remember, at no time do we “self-deploy.” Any deployment notices will come either via myself or David Byrum from the State or possibly via your local agencies.

We will also need experienced net control stations that can operate an Emergency HF Net in support of the counties in the impacted areas. If you have a strong station that can transmit and receive well throughout the state, please complete this registration form – https://arrl-nfl.org/emncs/

In addition, we have come to the difficult decision to postpone the statewide exercise/SET that was planned for October 1. For those counties that had signed up, please keep your inject packets. We will announce the replacement date in the coming months.”

Bobby Graves KB5HAV, the Net Manager of the Hurricane Watch Net announced earlier today that the Hurricane Watch Net will not activate today, but an announcement will be made tomorrow, Monday September 25, by 1130 EDT as to when the Hurricane Watch Net will be activated.  The net frequencies are 14.325 KHz on 20 Meters during the day and 7268 KHz on 40 Meters at night, or both frequencies could be active at the same if band conditions warrant both frequencies to be activated.  Please leave these frequencies open for the time being and especially when these nets are active as they will be disseminating National Hurricane Center (NHC) bulletins, and coordinating the transmission of weather reports from the affected areas to the NHC.  For more information you may go to the Hurricane Watch Net website at https://www.hwn.org.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IAN – 2000 EDT – 9/24/22

Tropical Storm Ian did become better organized over the day and is now beginning the process of slowly strengthening, eventually into either a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…14.6N 77.1W
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 430 MI…690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND CAYMAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“The satellite presentation of Ian has improved this afternoon. The associated deep convection shows increased signs of organization, and the deep-layer shear appears to have diminished over the cyclone based on more extensive upper-level outflow noted in visible satellite imagery. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found 850-mb peak flight level winds of 44 kt and several SFMR retrievals greater than 40 kt, while dropsonde data suggest the minimum pressure has not changed much since the previous flight. A blend of these data support an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

The aircraft data suggest the center could be re-forming slightly west of previous estimates, so the initial motion is an uncertain 265/14 kt. Ian is expected to move westward through early Sunday before turning northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a ridge to the north. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast on Monday and Tuesday as the center of Ian passes near or over the western tip of Cuba and emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the westward trend in the track models continues, with the latest GFS on the far left side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right edge. The track forecast is still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is once again adjusted westward, and further adjustments may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

Ian is expected to significantly strengthen over the next few days as it moves within a low shear environment over SSTs greater than 30 deg C in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the structure of the cyclone continues to improve and Ian develops an inner core, rapid intensification (RI) appears very likely. The SHIPS-RII probabilities continue to highlight this potential, with a 66 percent chance of a 65-kt intensity increase in 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast has been raised substantially through 96 h, and it now shows Ian reaching major hurricane strength by late Monday before it nears western Cuba. These changes closely follow the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, although there remains guidance even higher than the current forecast. Ian is forecast to remain a major hurricane as it moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Environmental conditions could become less favorable late in the period due to southerly shear associated with the aforementioned trough, but Ian is expected to remain a largeand powerful hurricane through the period.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES remains at a Level 3 Activation, as several ARES groups in the section are on standby for possible deployment by the middle of next week.  A Level 3 Activation is a Standby status, when there is a possibility of one or more ARES groups in any of the ten counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section being activated to provide services to their served agencies.

Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should bring to completion any personal preparedness activities as soon as possible and stay in communication with their respective leadership, in case of activation.  We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.  Please wait for permission to activate from your respective chains of command.

Arc Thames W4CPD has been designated as the liaison between all three of the ARRL Florida Section ARES programs and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.  Thames had the following message for all Florida ARES groups:  “Tropical Storm Ian has its eye set on somewhere in Florida mid-late next week. At this point, almost the entirety of the state is in the cone of uncertainty. I encourage you to you prepare your homes and families while there is time ahead of the storm. I also encourage all ARES and other communications teams across the state to prepare and test their equipment this weekend since there is so much uncertainty of the path of the storm.

I am actively in contact with the state ESF-2 team and have been asked to prepare volunteers for possible deployment to counties that may not have enough amateur radio volunteers. There are many counties that may end up with a significant need for amateur radio operators to staff shelters and augment local ARES or other communications teams. In preparation for this, if you would be willing to deploy to another county within the state for Ian, please complete this application at this website: https://forms.gle/oeyspzfhPnf9RDdQ6.

It is preferred that you have completed the AUXCOMM course (completion of the AUXCOMM Taskbook is not required) or your ARES Taskbook to level 2. Regardless of your completion of those items, if interested, please fill out the application as soon as possible. Please remember, at no time do we “self-deploy.” Any deployment notices will come either via myself or David Byrum from the State or possibly via your local agencies.

We will also need experienced net control stations that can operate an Emergency HF Net in support of the counties in the impacted areas. If you have a strong station that can transmit and receive well throughout the state, please complete this registration form – https://arrl-nfl.org/emncs/

In addition, we have come to the difficult decision to postpone the statewide exercise/SET that was planned for October 1. For those counties that had signed up, please keep your inject packets. We will announce the replacement date in the coming months.”

Bobby Graves KB5HAV, the Net Manager of the Hurricane Watch Net has indicated that an announcement will be made tomorrow, Sunday September 25, as to when the Hurricane Watch Net will be activated.  The net frequencies are 14.325 KHz on 20 Meters during the day and 7268 KHz on 40 Meters at night, or both frequencies could be active at the same if band conditions warrant both frequencies to be activated.  Please leave these frequencies open for the time being and especially when these nets are active as they will be disseminating National Hurricane Center (NHC) bulletins, and coordinating the transmission of weather reports from the affected areas to the NHC.  For more information you may go to the Hurricane Watch Net website at https://www.hwn.org.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN