ARRL West Central Florida Section

SECTION ARES NET AND EAGLE NET CANCELLED FOR THIS EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AFTERMATH

Due to recovery efforts of our amateur radio operators in the ares, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net scheduled for Monday 8/05/24 at 1930 EDT on the NI4CE Analog Repeater System is cancelled.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net will resume normal operation at 1930 EDT on Monday 8/12/24.

Due to the aftermath of Tropical Storm Debby, the Eagle Net, the NTS Traffic Net for the ARRL West Central Florida Section, scheduled for Monday 8/05/24 at 2030 is also cancelled.  The Eagle Net will resume normal operation tomorrow, Tuesday 8/06/24 at 2030 EDT.

(Note: The Eagle Net cancellation was added to this original bulletin after its publication.)

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY – 1800 EDT – 8/05/24 – FINAL

Tropical Storm Debby, became Hurricane Debby late last night and made landfall around 0700 at Steinahatchee, about 20 miles down the west coast from Keaton Beach, which is where Hurricane Idalia made landfall almost one year ago. Debby, now moving due north, will turn slightly to the northeast before making landfall tomorrow around midday in the Taylor and Jefferson County area.  Debby is now projected to enter Georgia later this evening and take a very slow path either out to the Atlantic briefly before making a second landfall in South Carolina or wander along the Georgia coast to South Carolina.  Finally late in the week the Westerlies will begin to capture her and take her eventually out into the North Atlantic.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 1700 EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…30.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM SE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* St. Augustine, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Debby continues to move over land, and based on surface synoptic and radar observations the center is estimated to be near the Florida/Georgia border. Assuming a continued weakening since landfall, the intensity estimate has been reduced to 45 kt, which is reasonably consistent with the latest WSR-88D radar velocities aloft.

Debby continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical high, and the forward motion has slowed to about 035/6 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward, while moving quite slowly, in a region of weak steering currents for the next couple of days. This
motion should bring the center of the system back over water by late Tuesday. In around 72 hours, a mid-level ridge to the east of Debby is forecast to build somewhat, and as a result, the center should move inland over South Carolina and turn northward and northeastward over the eastern U.S. for the remainder of theforecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, guidance.

The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be conservative.

Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large amounts of rainfall over the Southeastern U.S. is anticipated.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All Tropical Storm Watches and Warning for the ARRL West Central Florida Section were dropped this afternoon with the 1700 EDT advisory.  All Storm Surge Watches and Warnings were discontinued earlier today.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section continues under a Flood Watch until 2000 EDT this evening.

With the imminent demobilization of Hillsborough County ARES/RACES, effective at 1700 EDT, the ARES alert level for the ARRL West Central Florida Section will return to a no activation status, effective at 1800 EDT.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section extends its sincere thanks to all amateur radio operators who were deployed, ready to be deployed, and supported the West Central Florida SKYWARN Net that was in session for the past few days and today.

With amateur radio operators busy with their own recovery actions, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Net scheduled for Monday 8/05/24 at 1930 EDT on the NI4CE Analog Repeater System is cancelled.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Net will resume operation Monday 8/12/24.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Storm Debby and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030250.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL042024#navLink

CONCLUSION

This is the last WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Debby unless it becomes a threat to the Section once again.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

EAGLE NET CANCELLED DUE TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY

Being the West Central Florida SKYWARN Net is currently running on the NI4CE Analog Repeater System due to the proximity of Tropical Storm Debby, the Eagle Net, the NTS traffic net for the ARRL West Central Florida Section will be cancelled for Sunday 8/04/24.  The Eagle Net will resume normal operation on Monday 8/05/24 at 2030 EDT.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY – 1900 EDT – 8/04/24

Tropical Storm Debby, which is approaching hurricane strength, is now due west of Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties.  Over a good portion of the day there have been many tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings in areas hit by feeder bands.  Debby, now moving due north, will turn slightly to the northeast before making landfall tomorrow around midday in the Taylor and Jefferson County area.  Debby is then projected to exit the east coast of the United States either sooner or later depending upon which path it finally takes.  Its current projected path, until landfall, is reminiscent in some ways of the path taken by Hurricane Idalia one year ago.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 1900 EST…2300 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…27.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Debby’s cloud pattern continues to show increasing organization on satellite images although there is limited deep convection over the southwest quadrant of the circulation. The upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern is well-defined. The latest Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicated that the central pressure hadn’t changed much and the wind data from the aircraft continued to support an intensity of near 55 kt. WSR-88D radar imagery shows that an eyewall may be trying to close off, and another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Debby in a few hours to assess the strength of the cyclone.

The cyclone has turned toward the north and is now moving at around 360/10 kt. Debby should continue to move through a break in the subtropical ridge due to a trough over the eastern United States for the next day or so, and this motion should bring the center of the system to the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast around midday tomorrow. Thereafter, the trough moves eastward, leaving Debby in weak steering currents for a few days. The track guidance shows decreasing forward speed and a turn to the east in 24-48 hours.  Some of the track models show the cyclone moving temporarily over the Atlantic in the 72-hour time frame, and so does the official forecast.

Debby will continue to move over waters of high heat content and remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear into Monday morning. Some dry air intrusion over the southwestern portion of the circulation may have temporarily interrupted the intensification process. However, given the favorable oceanic and shear conditions, significant strengthening is expected before landfall.  Rapid intensification is especially likely if Debby acquires a well-defined inner core. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. Although weakening will occur after landfall, the longer-term strength of the system is largely dependent on how long it remains over land. Currently the official forecast shows some re-intensification with Debby moving into the Atlantic, but how much the system will restrengthen is highly uncertain.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

Basically there have not been any changes to tropical storm watches or warnings since yesterday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Coastal Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, and Pinellas Counties.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Inland Charlotte, Polk, Desoto, and Hardee Counties.  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coastal portions of Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco Counties.  Highlands County is the only county in the ARRL West Central Florida Section that does not have any tropical watches or warnings at the present time.

A Tornado Watch that was set to expire at press time, has been extended until 0600 EDT on Monday 8/05/24, for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Polk Counties.  The Tornado Watch for the other ARRL West Central Florida Section has been allowed to expire.  Due to continuous rainfall, a Flood Watch has been extended and is now in effect for all of the ARRL West Central Florida Section until 2000 EDT tomorrow evening, Monday 8/05/24.

West Central Florida SKYWARN is active on the NI4CE Analog Repeater System and NI4CE NXDN Repeater System on Talkgroup 1299.  Due to continued SKYWARN activity, the Eagle Net scheduled for 2030 EDT on Sunday 8/04/24 is CANCELLED.  The net will return to normal operation tomorrow Monday 8/05/24 at 2030 EDT.

At 2000, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Alert Level remains at a Level 3 Alert.  A Level 3 Alert indicates that all ARES groups are on standby in case their services are requested by their served agencies.  The only ARES group that has been deployed is Hillsborough County ARES/RACES at the present time.  At the present time, there have not been any other requests for service from any of the primary served agencies that ARES serves in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  The Sarasota Agricultural Recovery Group (SARG) has been requested to standby in case of need activation as well.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Storm Debby and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  Also SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to remain alert and ready to report to the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin any weather that meets the severe weather criteria.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030250.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL042024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY – 2000 EDT – 8/03/24

Much has changed since the last bulletin.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Four became Tropical Depression Four last evening at 2300 EDT, and Tropical Storm Debby at 1700 EDT today.  Debby most likely has finally made its turn to the northwest, crossed over Cuba and is now in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and is making its long journey to the Florida Panhandle.  Its current projected path is reminiscent in some ways of the path taken by Hurricane Idalia one year ago.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…24.1N 83.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Aripeka northward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast east of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region. A combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S. trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand, the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions.

Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

Since yesterday the tropical storm watches were upgraded to tropical storm warnings for the coastal counties.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Charlotte, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, and Pinellas Counties.  A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties:  Polk, Desoto, and Hardee Counties.  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coastal portions of Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco Counties.  Highlands County is the only county in the ARRL West Central Florida Section that does not have any watch or warnings at the present time.

Due to the threat from excessive rainfall, A Flood Watch is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section counties: Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco Counties.

At 2000, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Alert Level remains at a Level 3 Alert.  A Level 3 Alert indicates that all ARES groups are on standby in case their services are requested by their served agencies.  The only ARES group that has been deployed is Hillsborough County ARES/RACES at the present time.  At the present time, there have not been any other requests for service from any of the primary served agencies that ARES serves in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Storm Debby and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.  Also SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to remain alert and ready to report to the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin any weather that meets the severe weather criteria.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030250.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL042024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 – 2100 EST – 8/02/24

Invest 97L, which had been moving closer and closer to the southeastern United States for several days was finally declared a Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, on Thursday August 1, 2024.  If Potential Tropical Cyclone Four becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Tropical Storm Debby.  Its current projected path is reminiscent in some ways of the path taken by Hurricane Idalia one year ago.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…21.4N 78.9W
ABOUT 70 MI…110 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.82 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* St. Catherine’s Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However, the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 25 kt.

The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt.  A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropicalridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h.  On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward, and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas receive the strongest impacts.

There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of 2000 EDT, A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the following ARRL West Central Florida Section:  Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, and Polk Counties.  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coastal portions of Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco Counties.  Note that Highlands County is the only county in the ARRL West Central Florida Section that does not have any watch or warnings at the present time.

At 2000, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Alert Level was raised to a Level 3 Alert.  A Level 3 Alert indicates that all ARES groups are on standby in case their services are requested by their served agencies.  At the present time, there have not been any requests for service from any of the primary served agencies that ARES serves in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/030249.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030250.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL042024#navLink

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

24TH ANNUAL FIELD DAY CARAVAN AND SPECIAL EDITION OF THE EAGLE NET FOR ARRL FIELD DAY.

In keeping with tradition, once again this year our Section Manager and some of the Assistant Section Managers will be doing the 24th Annual West Central Florida Section Field Day Caravan.  The following are participating in the caravan:  Mike Douglas W4MDD our Section Managers and Assistant Section Managers Russ Delaney N4RTD and Darrell Davis KT4WX.  They will be split into two teams.  For areas of coverage and APRS tracking information you may go to the West Central Florida Section Field Day Caravan page at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-special-events/west-central-florida-section-field-day-caravan/.

For those wishing to send NTS Radiograms to our Section Manager, Section Emergency Coordinator, or anyone else for bonus points, there will be a special extended edition of the Eagle Net on Saturday June 22, 2024 at 2030 Eastern Time.  Dave Rockwell W4PXE, our Section Traffic Manager, will be Net Control of this special edition and will be NCS from W4ACS, the station at the Pinellas County Emergency Operations Center.

Also on the West Central Florida Section Field Day Caravan page there are instructions on what should be included in an NTS Radiogram to our Section Manager or Section Emergency Coordinator and suggested way in which clubs, groups, or individuals may send that NTS Radiogram as well.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section wishes everyone a successful 2024 ARRL Field Day.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

FLORIDA QSO PARTY SET FOR LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL 2024

The Florida Contest Group recently announced the 26th Annual Florida QSO Party will be held on Saturday April 27, 2024 from 1600Z (Noon EDT) through 0159Z (9:59 PM EDT) and on Sunday April 28, 2024 from 1200Z (8:00 AM EDT) and 2159Z (5:59 PM EDT), which is a 20 hour total operating period.   The 40, 20, 15, and 10 Meter bands will be used.  All 67 Florida Counties will be eligible for activation.

For all the details on the Florida QSO Party, including the Florida QSO Spelling Bee, please go to their Florida QSO Party website at https://www.floridaqsoparty.org.  For the Florida QSO Party 2024 Flyer, please go to https://floridaqsoparty.org/wp-content/uploads/CQ-FL-HAMS-FQP-2024-Announcement-REV-A-12-15-23.pdf

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BIKE MS CITRUS TOUR NOW BIKE MS SUNCOAST CHALLENGE AND STILL IN NEED OF VOLUNTEERS.

The Bike MS Citrus Tour, which ran for 36 years, has been rebranded and relocated.  The BIke MS Citrus Tour is now the Bike MS Suncoast Challenge.  The 2024 Bike MS Suncoast Challenge will be held on Saturday April 20, 2024.  The ride is now a one day event instead of two days.  The starting point is now on the south end of Lakewood Ranch. The ride will still have 25, 50, 75, and 100 mile routes, that will run from the south end of Lakewood Ranch in Manatee County, to the south end of Sarasota County near the Nokomis and Englewood Area.  The ARRL West Central Florida Section is the sponsor of the amateur radio communications for the Bike MS Suncoast Challenge.

The 2024 Suncoast Challenge will be using the Verna NI4CE Analog repeaters, which are on 145.430 MHz and 442.950 MHz,as “stand alone” repeaters and will be separated from the NI4CE Analog repeater system for the duration of the Bike MS Suncoast Challenge.

The Bike MS Suncoast Challenge, due partially to its move, is still in need of several rest stop operators and SAG vehicle operators.  If you wish to volunteer, please sign up at the following website:  https://suncoastchalllenge.org.  Once you have registered, someone will get back with you on getting you assigned.

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