WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN #23-02 – 1800 EDT – 8/27/23

News

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA – 1800 EST – 8/27/23

Shortly after the 1100 EDT advisory, Tropical Depression Ten had strengthened enough and was declared Tropical Storm Idalia (pronounced ee-DAL-ya).  The center of Idalia is just east of the Yucatan, due to lack of steering mechanisms at the moment.  When high pressure to the east and a expected upper low form to the west, Idalia will begin to move in a northerly direction towards the northern gulf coast and is still expected to make landfall on late Wednesday or early Thursday in the big bend area of Florida.  Idalia is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall.

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 2000 EST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION

——————————————————————————-
LOCATION…20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida south of Englewood to Chokoloskee, and for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida
* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Idalia’s cloud pattern is gradually becoming a little better organized, with a curved convective band forming over the southern semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is currently restricted over the northern portion of the system, however.  The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission into the storm is scheduled for tonight.

The tropical cyclone continues to move rather slowly, and the initial motion estimate is 040/3 kt. Idalia should remain in a weak steering pattern through tonight so slow and possibly erratic motion is likely for the next 12 hours. On Monday, a mid-level ridge begins to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. This should result in a slightly east of northward motion during the next day or two. When the system moves into the northeast Gulf of Mexico, a mid-level trough developing over the eastern United States will likely cause Idalia to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed. The new official forecast is again shifted slightly eastward, and is somewhat faster than the previous one. This is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions and is also between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Idalia will be traversing eastern Gulf of Mexico waters of high oceanic heat content, and the environmental air mass should remain fairly moist. The flow to the east of an upper-level trough could impart some
vertical wind shear over the system, but this shear could also be compensated by the conducive effect of upper-level diffluence.  There is considerable spread in the model intensity guidance, ranging from minimal to major hurricane status before landfall on
the northeast Gulf coast. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and remains near the higher  end of the guidance. Given the uncertainties, users should monitor future NHC forecasts for possible changes in the predicted strength of Idalia, and prepare for possible significant impacts within the hurricane and storm surge watch areas.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of 1700 EDT, the following watches and or warnings are in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:

  • Tropical Storm Watch:  Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, and Polk Counties.
  • Hurricane Watch:  Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties.
  • Storm Surge Watch:  Coastal portions of Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties.

As of press time, Hillsborough County ARES/RACES has been requested to do a partial activation beginning tomorrow morning and may be requested to go to a full activation during the day tomorrow or later, depending upon the final path of Idalia. All other ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section are monitoring their situations carefully in case they are requested to activate.  Several counties have already brought their emergency operations centers up to a partial activation status, which for the most part is monitoring the situation.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to rush to completion any preparation activities in the next 24 hours.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami on Tropical Depression Ten and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/072333.shtml?

Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/072100.shtml?

Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/072057.shtml?

Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop:  https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL172022#navLink.

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Ten, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin release.