WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN #22-13 – 1900 EDT – 9/27/22
HURRICANE IAN – 1900 EDT – 9/27/22
Hurricane Ian is now Category 3, which makes it a major hurricane, on Tuesday morning. Ian is now in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving north-northeast towards the Florida west coast and is predicted, as of 1700 today, to make landfall around 1600 to 1800 EDT tomorrow afternoon somewhere near the Charlotte and Sarasota county line, then weaken rapidly once moving inland toward the west side of Polk County. As we have said before, we will dealing with Ian for most of this week, so this will not be a quick “ride” to say the least.
COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER
SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI…375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI…85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.12 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER…INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY’S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA…MAYABEQUE…AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
* FLAMINGO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY’S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF MARINELAND TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:
“The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone.
Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast, and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5 track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant re-strengthening is not expected at long range.
The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation. While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus. I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.
The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn’t previously under a warning. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.”
SITUATION AND ACTIONS:
As of 1700 EDT today, all of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is under a Hurricane Warning, with the exception of Pasco County, which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. The following tropical watches and warnings are in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section:
- Tropical Storm Warning: Pasco County.
- Hurricane Warning: Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte Counties on the coast and Polk, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto Counties in the interior. Counties.
- Storm Surge Warning: Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte Counties.
As of 1500 EDT today, ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES went to a Level 1 alert, as all ARES groups in the Section have been activated with the exception of Hardee County. This is the first time that a Section ARES Level 1 alert has been issued since Hurricane Irma in 2017.
Note: The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section. Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.
Section ARES Alert Levels:
Level 3: One or more ARES groups on Standby for possible activation in one or more WCF Counties.
Level 2: One or more WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
Level 1: All WCF Section ARES Groups are activated.
All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Tropical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center. All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel personal preparations should now be complete. We have been reminded that we DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE.
Arc Thames W4CPD, Section Emergency Coordinator – Northern Florida Section, has been designated as the liaison between Florida Tri-Section ARES and the Florida Division of Emergency Management. The following webpage has information on a couple of upcoming opportunities to volunteer and qualifications to volunteer: http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-section-programs/ares/hurricane-ian-service-requests/. Please, DO NOT SELF ACTIVATE. Any such volunteers will be contacted and authorized if they are to proceed.
This evening at 2000 EDT, the Florida Tri-Section ARES Net on either 3940 KHz or 3950 KHz will commence. The purpose of this net will be to provide HF communications to the State EOC. The tentative schedule for now will be from:
- 0800-2000 EDT 7.247 MHz or 7.247 MHz
- 2000-0800 EDT 3.940 MHz or 3.950 MHz
The Hurricane Watch Net is continuing operations for Hurricane Ian on 14.325 MHz and on 7.268 MHz. The following net schedule was obtained from the Hurricane Watch Net website that goes into full effect for the duration of Hurricane Ian.
- Resume operations Tuesday morning on 14.325.00 MHz at 8:00 AM EDT (1200 UTC). Remain active until we lose propagation.
- Activate our 40-meter Net on 7.268.00 MHz at 7:00 PM EDT (2300 UTC). Remain active until midnight eastern.
Today, the FCC grants a temporary 60-day waiver to permit amateur data transmissions at a higher symbol rate than currently is permitted by section 97.307(f) of the Commission’s rules, in order to facilitate hurricane relief communications within the United States and its territories. This will allow PACTOR 4 operation on HF.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:
Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?
Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/232103.shtml?
Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/232054.shtml?
Latest GOES Satellite Floater Images and Loop: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092022#navLink
CONCLUSION
The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN for Tropical Storm Ian will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory, unless conditions warrant a sooner bulletin.