Category: News

REMNANTS OF FRED – 1800 EDT – 8/14/21

At 1100 EDT today, the National Hurricane Center could not find a closed center of circulation and declared Fred to no longer be a tropical cyclone.  However, they are reasonably confident it will re-obtain tropical cyclone status sometime in the next 24 hours.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…24.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI…820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of the elongated center. However, neither the circulation nor the convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a tropical cyclone at this time. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this evening to see how far the re-development has progressed.

The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11. The system is expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60h. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur depending on where the center of Fred re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which
could change quite a bit during the next day or so.

The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the next 24 h. They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind
environment. After landfall, the system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight,
and warnings may be required on Sunday.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At this time there are no watches or warnings in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section or the entire State of Florida.

Several ARES Groups stood down today from stand by status.  Once final confirmation is received that all ARES groups have stood down, we will return the Section ARES Alert Level to No Alert.  It is possible that some ARES groups may remain at a stand by status due to slowly increasing threat from Tropical Storm Grace.   Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/112039.shtml
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/112039.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112040.shtml

CONCLUSION

This will be the last WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on the Remnants of Fred, unless the threat to the Florida peninsula significantly increases.

WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETINS could commence on Tropical Storm Grace either tomorrow or Monday 8/16/21, depending upon the forecast track.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED – 1800 EDT – 8/13/21

Since the 1100 EDT advisory earlier today, Tropical Depression Fred was headed nearly west for several hours.  As a result, the forecast track has shifted significantly west, the first real significant shift of the forecast track in several days.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was  located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center.  Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow
strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…22.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1013 MB…29.92 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Although there has been a general increase in convection associated with Fred since this morning, the system remains disorganized with the low-level center moving farther inland over central Cuba. Earlier ASCAT data detected an area of 25-27 kt winds over water to the northeast of the center, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which could be a little generous.

Since the previous advisory, Fred has been moving nearly due westward, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt.  The cyclone is nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is centered over the western Atlantic. This should cause Fred
to turn west-northwestward tonight, and then northwestward on Saturday. The latest interpolated guidance that was initialized with the more southward and westward 18Z initial position shows a wider or more gradual northwestward turn, and therefore has shifted significantly westward, especially in the short term. However, the global models fields track the 850-mb vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn’t too surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that remains quite disorganized.

Fred remains within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the model guidance generally indicates that this shear will continue during the next day or so. Since it will also take time for the system to recover after its passage over Cuba, only gradual strengthening is indicated during the next day or two. After that time, the system could be in a somewhat more favorable environment, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening until Fred reaches the northern Gulf Coast, which now doesn’t occur until around 72 hours with the wider turn shown in the track forecast. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the various consensus aids, the statistical guidance, and the HWRF
model, which all generally show the system peaking in 60-72 hours.  The intensity forecast remains of lower-than-normal confidence due to Fred’s continued interaction with land.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance of tornadoes will extend far to northeast and east of the center, and those hazards are likely to still affect portions of the Florida peninsula, despite the recent shift in the forecast track.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for coastal Charlotte, coastal Lee, coastal Collier, and Monroe Counties, including the western part of the Florida Keys.  At the present time there is a Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Charlotte County only.  There are no Tropical Storm Warnings for the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

Five ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section, have reported going to a Level 3 Activation, which is a Standby/Monitoring mode.  As a result, the ARRL West Central Florida Section Alert Level continues at Level 3.  Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT should stay in communications with their respective organizations in case of requested activation.   All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should rush to completion any equipment checks or supply shortages shortly, in case of an unlikely change in the forecast track.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/112039.shtml
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/112039.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112040.shtml

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Fred will be issued tomorrow at around 1800 EDT, unless conditions warrant a bulletin sooner.

 FALL TARCFEST 2021 CANCELLED DUE TO COVID 19 CONCERNS

The following statement was released on Wednesday August 11th, 2021 by Larry Wissinger KM4LEW, Secretary of the Tampa Amateur Radio Club (TARC) concerning the upcoming TARCFest Fall 2021 scheduled for Saturday August 21st, 2021:

“Due to the increase of COVID cases in the Tampa Bay Area the TARC Board has made the decision to cancel TARCFest which was scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 21st.  We feel that the health and safety of our members and fellow Hams is more important than going ahead with this event.  Any help you can give us in getting the word out to the other clubs in the area would be appreciate.”  Covid-19 has come to bring us many problems so we suggest the use of the best nootropics, commonly referred to as ‘smart drugs’, are supplements that can enhance cognitive function. For people that have had COVID-19, they may be beneficial in supporting brain function and aiding in the recovery of neurological symptoms associated with the disease.

END OF  PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED – 1800 EDT – 8/12/21

Tropical Storm Fred weakened over night into a Tropical Depression due to land interaction when it crossed Hispanola.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was  located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center.  Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow
strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

COASTAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FORECAST CONE FOR STORM CENTER

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…21.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 470 MI…760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI…270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA…CAMAGUEY…LAS TUNAS…HOLGUIN…AND GRANMA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Fred remains poorly organized at this time. While the low-level circulation looks more closed than it did earlier, the center is broad and may have multiple vortices rotating around it. Also, while convection has increased from earlier today, there is only minimal convection near the center and little evidence of banding.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt, with those winds likely occurring in squalls to the northeast of the center.

Fred has slowed its forward speed, with the initial motion now 295/10. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the northeast should steer Fred west-northwestward for the first 24-36 h, followed
by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone approaches the western periphery of the ridge. By 96-120 h, a northward motion is expected as Fred moves into a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward since the previous advisory, most notably after about 24 h. Thus, that portion of the new forecast track has also been nudged a little westward, but it still lies to the east of the various consensus models.

Fred remains in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. The shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and this combined with the current disorganization of the system should prevent significant strengthening during that time. After that, there remains disagreement between the global models on the evolution of the upper-level trough over Florida and the upper-level anticyclone southeast of Fred. Some shear is likely to continue, but there may be a period of more conducive conditions from 36-72 h.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for slow strengthening through the first 36 h, with a little faster strengthening from 36-72 h. With that being said, the forecast 45-kt peak intensity is near the high end of the intensity guidance.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued this afternoon for coastal Collier, coastal Monroe including the western part of the Florida Keys.    At the present time there are no watches or warnings for the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

Two ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section, have reported going to a Level 3 Activation, which is a Standby/Monitoring mode.  As a result, the ARRL West Central Florida Section Alert Level is now at Level 3.  Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT should stay in communications with their respective organizations in case of requested activation.   All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should perform any checks on equipment and or supplies in case of activation.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/112039.shtml
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/112039.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112040.shtml

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Fred will be issued tomorrow at around 1800 EDT, unless conditions warrant a bulletin sooner.

TROPICAL STORM FRED – 1800 EDT – 8/11/21

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which had been designated a Potential Tropical Cyclone at 1700 EDT on Monday August 9th, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred at 2300 EDT on Tuesday August 10th. With portions of the State of Florida now within both the 5 day and 3 day cone, WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETINS will now commence on Tropical Storm Fred.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 71.0 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next two days or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola for the next several hours, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move
near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…14.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 165 MI…260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 205 MI…330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“During the past several hours, the center of Fred has moved inland over the Dominican Republic. The storm continues to produce an area of convection near and southeast of the center. However, the low-level circulation is losing some organization as it passes over mountainous terrain. There have been no observations near the center recently, so the initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly on weakening from the previous over water intensity.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/13. Some erratic motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the center moves over the mountains of Hispaniola. After reaching the water, the cyclone is expected to moves west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge through about 60 h. After that, a northwestward motion is expected through the end of the forecast period as Fred moves toward a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast track is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from the previous NHC track.

Fred is expected to weaken to a depression over Hispaniola during the next 12 h. Once back over water, the cyclone is expected to be in a moderate westerly shear environment through at least 60 h. Due to that, and the uncertainty in how well organized the system will be after crossing Hispaniola, the intensity forecast shows only modest intensification during this time. After that time, the global models forecast that an upper-level trough over Florida will gradually move to the north, with an large upper-level anticyclone following near or to the southeast of Fred. How close this anticyclone gets to Fred will determine how much the shear decreases while the system is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the global models are not in great agreement on this. The GFS and Canadian keep the high far enough to the east to expose Fred to southwesterly upper-level winds, while the UKMET and ECMWF move it closer to the storm. The intensity forecast will show a slightly faster rate of strengthening after 72 h to match the guidance and the previous forecast. However, there is lower than normal confidence in this part of the intensity forecast.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time, there are no watches or warnings in effects for the State of Florida and the ARRL West Central Florida Section.

Two ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section, have reported going to a Level 3 Activation, which is a Standby/Monitoring mode.  As a result, the ARRL West Central Florida Section Alert Level is now at Level 3.  Note:  The Section ARES Alert Level simply reflects the activation status of local ARES groups in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  Each ARES groups activates at the request of their served agencies and or in accordance with their local ARES plan.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel are encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT should stay in communications with their respective organizations in case of requested activation.   All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should perform any checks on equipment and or supplies in case of activation.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/112039.shtml
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/112039.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/112040.shtml

CONCLUSION

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Fred will be issued tomorrow at around 1800 EDT, unless conditions warrant a bulletin sooner.

NEW EMERGENCY COORDINATOR FOR CHARLOTTE COUNTY RECENTLY APPOINTED

On Tuesday April 27, 2021, Mike Douglas W4MDD, Section Manager of the ARRL West Central Florida Section, appointed Tom Chance K9XV, to be the new ARRL Emergency Coordinator for Charlotte County. Chance succeeds Jon Pellant W1JP, who had been ARRL Emergency Coordinator since December 2018.

Chance was first licensed as Novice class in 1972, at the age of twelve, after being introduced to amateur radio by his uncle Bob W9PSE when he was only eight years old.  Chance upgraded to General class in 1974, after passing a 13 word per minute Morse code exam, and received the callsign WB9KWS.  (To upgrade to General class before April 15, 2000, passing a 13 word per minute Morse code exam was required.)  Chance is a member of the Florida Contest Group, a past member of the Society of Midwest Contesters, and one of the founders of the Innovations in DX and Contesting which operates with the callsign W9VW.  Chance has extensive experience in emergency communications. In 2000, Chance became a member of SEMA (State of Indiana Emergency Management) which after September 11^th, 2001 became the Indiana Department of Homeland Security (IDHS). Chance during this time supported IDHS with amateur radio communications via HF and various repeaters.

In 2015, Chance relocated from the Indianapolis, Indiana area to Charlotte County.  It was after relocating, that Chance began to research Winlink and “Winlink like” systems for use in emergency communications.  Chance has served in Charlotte County ARES for several years.

Chance in his professional career worked for Dell-EMC as a Software System Architect and Engineer developing new software and processes to analyze existing compute and storage systems to assist the solution architects in the field to design new solutions.  Chance graduated from Indiana University–Purdue University Indianapolis in 1982 with a degree in Electrical Engineering, specializing in analog and digital systems designs.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

SECTION ARES AND INFORMATION NET FOR SATURDAY 7/17/21 IS CANCELLED

In keeping with tradition, the ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net on 3940 KHz at 0730 hours or immediately following the Florida Phone Traffic Net scheduled for Saturday July 17, 2021, has been cancelled, so everyone will have time to prepare to attend the Summer 2021 Section ARES Luncheon at 1100 hours and the Summer 2021 Section ARES Meeting at 1300 hours, on Saturday July 17th, 2021  For more details on the location of the Summer 2021 Section ARES Luncheon and Meeting, you may go to the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES and Information Net will return to its normal scheduled date and time on Saturday July 24th, 2021.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

NEW EMERGENCY COORDINATOR FOR POLK COUNTY APPOINTED

On Tuesday July 1, 2021, Mike Douglas W4MDD, Section Manager of the ARRL West Central Florida Section, appointed Mike Shreve N6MRS to be the new ARRL Emergency Coordinator for Polk County. Shreve succeeds Christine Duez K4KJN, who had been ARRL Emergency Coordinator since July 2020.

Shreve had been interested in amateur radio as a youth, it was not until 2013 that Shreve received his Technician’s license with the callsign of KK4UGD.  Shreve subsequently upgraded to General in 2014, changed his callsign to his current callsign of N6MRS in 2017, and upgraded to Extra Class in 2019.  Shreve is currently serving as President of the Lakeland Amateur Radio Club, is also active in Polk County ARES, active on several NTS traffic nets, and operates almost exclusively CW on the HF bands.   Shreve has lived in Lakeland since 1989 and is fluent in Spanish. Shrever brings his management and public speaking skills developed over a lifetime to his new position as ARRL Emergency Coordinator.

Shreve retired in 2018 from a thirty-seven year career in international sales management covering Mexico, Central and South America and the Caribbean.  Shreve has been married for 44 years, has three children, and five grandchildren.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ELSA – 1800 EDT – 7/07/21

Tropical Elsa Elsa obtained hurricane status late yesterday evening and earlier this morning, slightly weakened to a high end Tropical Storm.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

The primary impact to the coastal counties ARRL West Central Florida Section will be from storm surge, tropical storm force winds but soon begin to diminish today.  The primary impact to the inland counties of the ARRL West Central Florida Section will flooding due to excessive rain especially near rivers.

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-
LOCATION…30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today:

“Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt.  This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no
surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be
completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at this time.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows the multi-model consensus.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All Tropical Storm warnings and Storm Surge warnings for the State of Florida are discontinued.  A Flood Warnings are in effect for several rives in Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota Counties until Friday evening.  All other Flood warnings are discontinued.

With the expected closure of the shelter openings in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, Hillsborough ARES/RACES and Pinellas ARES/ACS have deactivated by now or should deactivate shortly.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES will return to No Activation level at 1800 EDT this evening, due to the deactivation of Hillsborough County ARES/RACES and Pinellas County ARES/ACS.  Note: Section ARES Activations Levels are simply alert messages, as each ARES group is responsible for his own level of activation.

Everyone is highly encouraged to continue to check each advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami and any advisories or Hurricane Local Statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/052330.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/052053.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/052054.shtml?

CONCLUSION

This bulletin will be the last bulletin issued on Tropical Storm Elsa.  Thank you to everyone in ARES, ACS, and CERT groups for your service in Tropical Storm Elsa.