Author: Darrell Davis KT4WX

SPARCFEST 2020 CANCELLED – TAMPA BAY HAMFEST STILL SCHEDULED

On Wednesday October 14, the St. Petersburg Amateur Radio Club, as known by the name SPARC, announced on their website that the SPARCFEST 2020 that was to be held on Saturday November 14, 2020 at Freedom Lake Park in Pinellas Park was cancelled.  According to a statement on the SPARC website, the cancellation was due to a limitation of 50 persons being able to be in Freedom Lake Park.

On Wednesday October 15, the Florida Gulf Coast Amateur Radio Council met via Zoom and decided to go ahead and conduct the Tampa Bay Hamfest 2020 but with some modifications.  Bill Willams AG4QX, President of the Florida Gulf Coast Amateur Radio Council, issued the following statement on the FGCARC website, “October 14th, the Florida Gulf Coast Amateur Radio Council met and decided to have the Hamfest as scheduled but with some changes to accommodate the Covid 19 situation.  The major change is that we will not be using the Expo building.  The whole Hamfest will take place in the block between Lemon St and Woodrow Wilson St including the two buildings there.  Most of the selling will be in the tailgate area.  Everything is not yet settled so we have suspended sales of tickets for a few weeks while details are worked out.  Thank you for your patience and stay tuned for further details.”  The ARRL West Central Florida Section is still planning on having a booth at the Tampa Bay Hamfest and to hold the ARRL forum as circumstances permit.  As more details are worked out, further information will be released in a future WCF SECTION PRESS RELEASE.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

ARRL WCF SECTION ARES MEETING FALL 2020 TO BE HELD VIA ZOOM.

The Fall 2020 ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Meeting will be held on Saturday October 17, 2020 at 1300 EDT, as a Zoom meeting, instead of a “face to face” meeting that was originally planned earlier this year, due to the COVID-19 situation.  The information to log into the Zoom meeting is located in the Section events calendar at the following address: http://arrlwcf.org/event/wcf-section-ares-meeting-fall-2020/.

The Fall 2020 ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES Luncheon is cancelled due to the cancellation of the in-person meeting.

The Zoom meeting will be open for attendees to check in 15 minutes before the meeting is scheduled to start at 1300, to allow participants time to log in and be sure their video and or audio is functioning.  Everyone is welcome to attend the Zoom meeting, but due to the terms of our Zoom account we are limited to a seating of 100.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

PASCO COUNTY HAMFEST FALL 2020 IS CANCELLED

On Monday September 14,2020, it was publicly announced that the Pasco County Fall Hamfest 2020, that had been scheduled for Saturday September 26, 2020, had been cancelled.  Don Nystrom KA2KDP, President of the Suncoast Amateur Radio Club, which sponsors the bi-annual Pasco County Hamfest, stated that the Gunn Highway Flea Market which had provided space for the hamfest had recently been sold and was no longer available to hold the hamfest.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TECHCON 2021 DATE AND VENUE SET

The 7th Annual TECHCON date and venue have been set.  The 7th Annual TECHCON, the ARRL West Central Florida Section Technical Conference, will be held on Friday February 26, 2021 and Saturday February 27, 2021.  The location for the 7th Annual TECHCON will be at the Polk County Emergency Operations Center located between Winter Haven and Lakeland.  The Friday Afternoon Workshop topic is to be determined.

If the Polk County Emergency Operations Center becomes unavailable due to the COVID-19 situation, the conference will be transitioned to a virtual conference via Zoom Teleconferencing.

Registration is now open for the 7th Annual TECHCON.  If you are planning on attending TECHCON, please register for TECHCON by filling out a TECHCON Registration Form on the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/section-forms/wcftechconfregistration/. Some of our previous presenters at TECHCON are planning on returning for the 7th Annual TECHCON, but we are looking for new presenters for the 7th Annual TECHCON as well.  If you wish to be a presenter, please fill out the TECHCON Registration Form and our current Section Manager Darrell Davis KT4WX will get back with you.  For more information on TECHCON you may go to the TECHCON web page on the Section website at http://arrlwcf.org/wcf-special-events/wcftechconference/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

THE WCF PRESSER ISSUE #53 FOR SEPTEMBER 2020 IS NOW PUBLISHED

The WCF PRESSER Issue #53 for September 2020, has been published on the Section website.  An announcement of the publication of the WCF PRESSER will be disseminated on the ARRL remailer shortly. If anyone has any information that is amateur radio related that you would like to go into the next issue of THE WCF PRESSER, please send that to our newsletter editor, Jim Weslager K3WR via email at weslager@gmail.com.

For the PDF version of this newsletter and past issues in PDF format go to http://arrlwcf.org/home/the-wcf-section-presser-arrl-west-central-florida-section-news/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

HURRICANE SALLY – 1700 EDT – 9/15/20

Hurricane Sally is now finally moving north towards the Mississippi and Alabama coastline but very slowly.  Landfall is further to the east than was expected this time yesterday but is expected sometime tomorrow.  The biggest threat to southern Mississippi and Alabaman may be flooding as well as moderate wind damage.  Tropical Storm Warnings remain for the western Florida panhandle and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for extreme western Florida panhandle.   Storm Surge Warnings are now in efffect for the extreme western Florida panhandle.

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…29.5N 88.1W
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 90 MI…140 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB…28.91 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today, “Sally has been inching its way toward the north-central Gulf Coast today. The overall structure of the storm has remained about the same during the day with a large ragged eye in apparent in radar
imagery. A NOAA P-3 aircraft that has been sampling the storm since late this morning has reported peak flight-level winds of 76 kt, and NWS Doppler radar has shown velocities of 75-80 kt at around 7000 ft. The intensity was reduced to 70 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory.

Radar and aircraft fixes show that Sally has been moving very slowly toward the north or 350/2 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains
unchanged from the previous advisory. Sally is currently located within an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level ridges to its east and west. A weak mid-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days, which should cause Sally to turn north-northeastward and then northeastward over the next 24-36 hours. Sally’s forward speed is expected to remain quite slow over the next 24-48 hours, but the guidance has trended slightly faster after that time. The slow forward speed is likely to result in a historical rainfall event for the north-central Gulf Coast. It may sound like a broken record, but the track guidance has again shifted eastward during the first 24-36 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Since Sally has a large wind field, and storm surge and rainfall hazards extend far from the eye, users should not focus on the exact forecast track or specific location and timing of landfall as strong winds and bands of heavy rainfall are already affecting the Gulf Coast and will continue to do so for quite some time.

The combination of upwelling and moderate westerly shear is likely to result in little change in strength prior to Sally moving onshore. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore, rapid weakening is expected and the global models indicate that the circulation will becoming elongated along a frontal boundary in 3 to 4 days.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portions of Gulf, Bay, southern part of Walton and Okaloosa Counties.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties.  Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Oklaloosa Counties.

The only warnings in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section are Flood Warnings in effect for portions of the Peace River in Polk County near Bartow, the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park in Sarasota County, and Cypress Creek at State Road 54 Worthington Gardens which will affect Pasco County.  These are from the recent rains from when Hurricane Sally passed by over the weekend and on Monday.

The threat from Hurricane Sally have been tremendously diminished to the ARRL West Central Florida Section.   Everyone should continue monitoring the latest advisories issued four times a day by the National Hurricane Center and for any further watches and or warnings issued by the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/120242.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?

This will be the last WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Hurricane Sally unless conditions dramatically change and the threat to the ARRL West Central Florida Section is once again increased.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

HURRICANE SALLY – 1700 EDT – 9/14/20

Sally, intensifying to a category one hurricane earlier today, continues to move away from the State of Florida towards a likely landfall in eastern Louisiana or Mississippi sometime late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday.  Tropical Storm Warnings remain for the western Florida panhandle and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for extreme western Florida panhandle..

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…28.8N 87.4W
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 145 MI…230 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…987 MB…29.15 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today, “After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds
of 85-90 kt reported. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory. The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample the storm. Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength. On Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in
southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification process. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HWRF and HFIP corrected consensus models.  Sally did not move much earlier today as the center re-formation took place, but it appears that a slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion has resumed. Weak ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer Sally generally west-northwestward through early Tuesday. After that time, steering currents weaken and a slow northward motion is forecast as a weak mid-level trough develops over the the central United States. This trough is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Sally to begin a slow north-northeastward or northeastward motion. The specific timing and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventual
location and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.  The UKMET and ECMWF models show a more northeastward motion after
the turn and have trended eastward, with the ECMWF much slower than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track has been adjusted
eastward, and this requires and eastward extension of the hurricane warning. The new track most closely follows the GFS and it ensemble
mean, but lies to the west of the various consensus aids, so some additional eastward adjustments could be needed in subsequent advisories.

Given the uncertainty in the timing and location of the northward turn and the lack of well-defined steering currents, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal portions of Gulf, Bay, southern part of Walton and Okaloosa Counties.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern parts of Santa Rosa and Escambia Counties. The Tropical Storm Watch for coastal Franklin County was discontinued. The only warnings in effect for the ARRL West Central Florida Section are Flood Warnings in effect for portions of the Peace River in Polk County near Bartow, the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park in Sarasota County, and Cypress Creek at State Road 54 Worthington Gardens which will affect Pasco County.  The Flood Watch that had been in effect for the entire Ruskin CWA for the last several days was allowed to expire.

At the present time, the primary threat to the ARRL West Central Florida Section continues to be the potential for flooding from any further rainfall.  Rain chances will remain elevated for This threat will continue to diminish as Hurricane Sally moves away from the State of Florida.  Everyone should continue monitoring the latest advisories issued four times a day by the National Hurricane Center and for any further watches and or warnings issued by the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.

If Hurricane Sally continues its present course away from Florida, these bulletins will be discontinued most likely after tomorrow, being the threat to the State of Florida will be diminished.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/120242.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Hurricane Sally will issued following the 1700 EDT advisory tomorrow for Hurricane Sally, unless conditions warrant a release sooner.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SALLY – 1700 EDT – 9/13/20

Tropical Storm Sally continues to move away from the State of Florida towards a likely landfall in eastern Louisiana or Mississippi sometime on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Sally will likely become a category one hurricane before landfall.  Tropical Storm Warnings remain for the western Florida panhandle and a Tropical Storm Watch extends slightly east of the Tropical Storm Warning area. The tides or winds of the oceans can alter the functioning of your penis, no, it’s not a joke, if you want to function like a bear and work 24/7, buy from the best, buy from Deutsche Medz.

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…27.8N 85.9W
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today, “Sally is forecast to move beneath a narrow upper-level ridge axis through Monday and the expected decrease in shear should allow the storm to strengthen. Since Sally is forecast to decelerate on its
approach to the northern Gulf coast, the system still has at least another 36 h to take advantage of the expected conducive environmental conditions. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for Sally to become a hurricane on Monday, with additional strengthening likely until landfall. The intensity guidance has trended slightly lower this cycle, with the HMON model now at the upper end of the guidance envelope. The reduction in the statistical guidance is likely due to the fact that Sally has not strengthened today and there is a persistence component to the forecast from those models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies a little above the latest HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Sally continues to move west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical storm is currently being steered around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Sally is forecast to reach the western extent of the ridge on Monday, and a slower northwestward motion is expected when the storm is near the north-central Gulf coast. The steering currents are forecast to weaken further in a couple of days as Sally rounds the western extent of the ridge and a slow northward motion is expected during that time. By 72 hours, the cyclone should begin to move somewhat faster toward the northeast as a trough deepens to its west. As often occurs, there has been some run-to-run variability among the various track models, and the latest iterations of them have shifted eastward with a slower forward speed. Despite the shifts of the individual models, the latest consensus aids are only slightly north and east of the previous NHC track through 60 hours, so only a small adjustment has been made to the earlier official forecast through that time. It is important not to focus too much on these small track changes and to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to extend far from the center. Also, since there is still quite a
bit of model spread in both the location and timing of when the center of Sally reaches the northern Gulf Coast, additional adjustments to the track forecast are possible.  Regardless of Sally’s exact landfall location and intensity, the cyclone is expected to bring wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to a large part of the north-central Gulf Coast. In particular, Sally’s slow forward speed near the coast will exacerbate the storm
surge and heavy rainfall threats.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for coastal Franklin County.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Gulf, Bay, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia Counties in the Florida Panhandle.  At the present time there is only a Flood Watch still in effect through  Sunday evening for the entire NWS Ruskin CWA (Coverage Warning Area) extending from Levy County all the way to Lee County on the coast and Polk, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto Counties.  All of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is included in this Flood Watch.  There are Flood Warnings for portions of the Peace River in Polk County near Bartow and the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park in Sarasota County.  The National Weather Service will make a decision later this evening as what Flood Watches or Warning will need to be extended.

At the present time, the primary threat to the ARRL West Central Florida Section continues to be the potential for flooding from excessive rainfall that has already occurred from Tropical Storm Sally, and any further rainfall will tend to aggravate that situation.  This threat will continue to diminish as Tropical Storm Sally moves away from the State of Florida.  Everyone should continue monitoring the latest advisories issued four times a day by the National Hurricane Center and for any further watches and or warnings issued by the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.on Tropical Depression Nineteen.

If Tropical Storm Sally continues its present course away from Florida, these bulletins will be discontinued most likely after tomorrow, being the threat to the State of Florida will be diminished.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/120242.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Sally will issued following the 1700 EDT advisory tomorrow for Tropical Storm Sally, unless conditions warrant a release sooner.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SALLY – 1700 EDT – 9/12/20

Tropical Depression Nineteen was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally earlier this afternoon and now is emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm watches on the Florida east coast have been dropped and a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch have been issued on parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline as Tropical Storm Sally begins to move away from the west coast of Florida.

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…25.7N 81.9W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM SSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida<

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT today, “Sally continues to gradually become better organized, with
developing convective banding features primarily over the southernportion of the circulation at this time. Upper-level outflow is still rather limited over the northern semicircle, possibly due to a weak upper low near the Georgia/Florida border. The latter feature is likely to soon move away from the area, however. Based on earlier scatterometer passes that showed tropical-storm-force winds over the Straits of Florida, the advisory intensity remains 35 kt.  With very warm waters and a moist tropospheric environment ahead of Sally, strengthening seems likely. Some increase in westerly shear over the northern Gulf in 48-72 hours could at least slow down the intensification process around that time. The official intensity forecast is not far from the latest model consensus and a little above the previous forecast.

Fixes from an Air Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft, radar, satellite, and surface observations indicate a slow, generally westward motion of about 280/6 kt. A weakening mid-level high pressure system to the northeast of Sally should cause a generally west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next few days.  Because of the weakening steering currents, the cyclone should move rather slowly while it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.  However, there is expected to be enough of a narrow north-south oriented ridge to the east of Sally in 3-4 days to steer the cyclone northward across the coast. The official track forecast has been nudged just slightly west of the previous one and lies
between the simple and corrected dynamical track model consensus predictions.

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin Counties in the Florida Panhandle. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida east coast have been discontinued,  At the present time there is only a Flood Watch still in effect until Sunday evening for the entire NWS Ruskin CWA (Coverage Warning Area) extending from Levy County all the way to Lee County on the coast and Polk, Hardee, Highlands and Desoto Counties.  All of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is include in this Flood Watch.  Ther are Flood Warnings for portions of the Peace River in Polk County near Bartow and the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park in Sarasota County.

At the present time, the primary threat to our the ARRL West Central Florida Section continues to be the potential for flooding from possibly excessive rainfall as West Central Florida is on the wetter side of Tropical Storm Sally.  This threat will continue to diminish as Tropical Storm Sally moves away from the State of Florida.  Everyone should continue monitoring the latest advisories issued four times a day by the National Hurricane Center and for any further watches and or warnings issued by the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.on Tropical Depression Nineteen.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should re-check their supplies and equipment just in case their services are required.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/120242.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Sally will issued following the 1700 EDT advisory tomorrow for Tropical Storm Sally, unless conditions warrant a release sooner.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN – 2300 EDT – 9/11/20

Tropical Depression Nineteen acquired tropical characteristics and the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on TD19 at 1700 EDT late this afternoon.  Due to the proximity of Tropical Depression Nineteen, the ARRL West Central Florida Section has begun to issue bulletins on this system. When Tropical Depression Nineteen reaches Tropical Storm strength, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Sally.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…25.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 2300 EDT today, “Doppler radar data from Miami and satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. The low-level center is estimated to be near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection due to some northerly wind shear.  Surface observations and satellite classifications support holding the initial intensity at 30 kt. The minimum pressure appears to be a little lower than before, now 1007 mb.

The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7kt. A subtropical ridge extending from the southeast U.S. to the western Atlantic should steer the depression west-northwestward across south Florida tonight and Saturday morning and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching trough, but the trough is not expected to be strong enough to cause the cyclone to turn northward. Instead, the models suggest that a slow west-northwestward motion very near the northern Gulf coast is likely during the early and middle portions of next week.  Although the models all show a relatively similar scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by the time the system nears the northern Gulf coast. The NHC track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the consensus aids.  Several of the local National Weather Service forecast offices across the southeast U.S. will be launching weather balloons four times per day, which should provide the models with excellent data in hopes to provide better track guidance during the next couple of days.

Since the depression is expected to move over very warm SSTs, once it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and remain in an
environment of low wind shear and high moisture, gradual strengthening seems likely. The models suggest that there could be an increase in westerly shear around the time the cyclone is forecast to move inland along the northern Gulf coast in about 4 days. Based on these expected environmental conditions, strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the IVCN and HCCA models.  The depression will likely be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Monroe counties on the Florida east coast and Okaloosa, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin Counties in the Florida Panhandle.  At the present time there is only a Flood Watch in effect until Sunday evening for the entire NWS Ruskin CWA (Coverage Warning Area) extending from Levy County all the way to Lee County on the coast and Polk, Hardee, Highlands and Desoto Counties.  All of the ARRL West Central Florida Section is include in this Flood Watch.

At the present time, the primary threat to our the ARRL West Central Florida Section will be the potential for flooding from possibly excessive rainfall as West Central Florida is on the wetter side of Tropical Depresssion Nineteen.  Everyone should continue monitoring the latest advisories issued four times a day by the National Hurricane Center and for any further watches and or warnings issued by the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.on Tropical Depression Nineteen.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should re-check their supplies and equipment just in case their services are required.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/120242.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/120243.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Depression Nineteen will issued following the 1700 EDT advisory for Tropical Depression Nineteen, unless conditions warrant a release sooner.

END OF SPECIAL BULLETIN