Category: News

TROPICAL STORM LAURA AND HURRICANE MARCO – 1800 EDT – 8/23/20

Since our last WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN yesterday Tropical Storm Marco entered the Gulf of Mexico and has become a category 1 hurricane.  There is a good possibility that by Tuesday we will have one hurricane and one tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, which is somewhat rare.  There is a possibility that Tropical Storm Laura could obtain category 1 hurricane status as Hurricane Marco is making landfall on the northern Gulf coast, which will allow us to see two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, which has not been seen since modern records have been kept for over the past 100 years.   Information on Hurricane Marco has been included for information purposes only.

TROPICAL STORM LAURA:  SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI…350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM LAURA:  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas

HURRICANE MARCO: SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…25.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 240 MI…390 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI…640 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.27 INCHES

HURRICANE MARCO: SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for….
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
* Cameron to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

DISCUSSION:

The following are excerpts from the Forecast Discussion of Tropical Storm Laura:

“Satellite imagery and radar data from eastern Cuba show that the center of Laura has been moving over water between Haiti and eastern Cuba this afternoon. There has been a recent uptick in convection near the center and the radar imagery has shown an increase in banding. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Laura this afternoon has reported a minimum pressure that has fallen to around 1000 mb, and winds to support an intensity of 50 kt. The plane very recently found a small area of stronger flight-level winds, but these winds may be associated with mesocyclone, and not representative of the large scale circulation.

Laura continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory. Laura should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge that is forecast to build westward across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. The track guidance has continued to edge southward for the portion of the forecast near Cuba, and the NHC forecast has again been moved in that direction. Laura should continue moving west-northwestward over the southeastern Gulf on Tuesday, but a turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday night as the cyclone nears the western portion of the ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion should then continue around the western portion of the ridge until the cyclone reaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The latest run of the ECMWF has shifted significantly eastward, however its ensemble mean and many of the stronger ensemble members remain farther west as a stronger cyclone is likely to be steered more westward by the deep-layer ridge. The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF remain close to the previous NHC track, so little change was made to the official forecast was made after 48 hours.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time there are no Tropical Storm Warnings for the State of Florida.  There are Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas.

As of press time, only one county in the ARRL West Central Florida Section has an ARES group on a Level 3 activation, which is a stand by mode:  Manatee County. As of press time, there are no other ARES groups on any activation level.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should continue to monitor the latest National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Storm Laura while the storm is in close proximity to the State of Florida.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/222347.shtml
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/222051.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222052.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Laura will be issued following the 1700 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Laura unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…18.0N 68.1W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm condition

DISCUSSION

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT on Tropical Storm Laura, “A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air  environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system.

Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions, and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about 280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the track guidance suite.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

At the present time there are no Tropical Storm Warnings for the State of Florida.  There are Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay only.  This watch will no doubt be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning as Laura approaches the Florida Keys.

As of press time, only one county in the ARRL West Central Florida Section has an ARES group on a Level 3 activation, which is a stand by mode:  Manatee County. As of press time, there are no other ARES groups on any activation level.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should continue to monitor the latest National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Storm Laura while the storm is in close proximity to the State of Florida.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/222347.shtml
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/222051.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222052.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Laura will be issued following the 1700 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Laura unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

THE WCF PRESSER ISSUE #52 FOR AUGUST 2020 IS NOW PUBLISHED

The WCF PRESSER Issue #52 for August 2020, has been published on the Section website.  An announcement of the publication of the WCF PRESSER will be disseminated on the ARRL remailer shortly. If anyone has any information that is amateur radio related that you would like to go into the next issue of THE WCF PRESSER, please send that to our newsletter editor, Jim Weslager K3WR via email at weslager@gmail.com.

For the PDF version of this newsletter and past issues in PDF format go to http://arrlwcf.org/home/the-wcf-section-presser-arrl-west-central-florida-section-news/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

NVIS TEST PLANNED FOR 8/22/20 IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY

END OF PRESS RELEASE

WCF SECTION TECHNICAL NET GETS NEW NET MANAGER

Darrell Davis KT4WX, Section Manager of the ARRL West Central Florida Section, has appointed Jim Peterson AF2W as the Net Manager for the ARRL West Central Florida Section Technical Net.  Peterson succeeds Burt Wizeman K4SRQ, who recently stepped down as Net Manager due to work and family commitments.

Davis made the following comments about the appointment of Peterson as Net Manager of the ARRL West Central Florida Technical Net, “Jim has extensive experience as net control, net manager, and also served on numerous occasions as NCS for the WCF Technical Net over the last year.  Jim will make an excellent net manager for the WCF Section Technical Net.”

Peterson was first licensed in March of 1993 as KC2BGJ and soon upgraded to General and Extra class.  Peterson then applied for and was granted the callsign of K2CSS, which stands for the first letter of the names of his three children, Catlin KC2OAR, Shannon, and Steven. Peterson became involved in the National Traffic System, serving as net control for several nets and then served as the Section Traffic Manager for the ARRL Eastern New York Section.  Peterson was also involved with his local ARES/RACES group, participating in helping with communications for several public service events including the Empire State Games.  Peterson assisted with communications for the American Red Cross in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attack on New York City.  After relocating to Florida a few years ago, Peterson became involved in the Eagle Net, the NTS traffic net for the ARRL West Central Florida Section, and soon after became the Thursday evening NCS and an Assistant Net Manager.  Peterson after relocating to Florida also applied and was granted his current callsign of AF2W

Peterson in his professional career has worked as an elevator adjuster, which involves providing programming and technical support for elevator maintenance, for 30 years.  Peterson has been married to his wife Tara N2CSS for 28 years and has three children:  Caitlin KC2OAR an army veteran and registered nurse, Shannon who is a medical receptionist and currently in college, and Stephen who is a dispatcher for the Hernando County Sheriff’s Office.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

 TARCFEST SCHEDULED FOR 8/22/20 TRANSITIONING TO A VIRTUAL HAMFEST VIA ZOOM

The Tampa Amateur Radio Club announced that the in person TARCFest scheduled for Saturday August 22, 2020 has been cancelled due to fallout from the COVID-19 situation.  The TARCFest will be held as “TARCFest ZoomFest”, which is a virtual hamfest held via the Zoom teleconferencing platform.  Further details will be forthcoming as plans are finalized and will be made available on the club website at https://hamclub.org.

For the full text of the announcement and link to the TARCFest ZoomFest flyer with the information on how to join via Zoom you may go to the Tampa Amateur Radio Club website at https://hamclub.org/wp/?p=2328.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS – 1800 EDT – 8/03/20

The following is the latest advisory on Tropical Storm Isaias.  Isaias has remained a strong tropical storm since last on Saturday due to 30 MPH wind shear.  Isaias is expected to remain a strong Tropical Storm and regain status as a Category 1 hurricane, due to a change in the direction of the wind shear,  before making landfall later this evening near the border between South Carolina and North Carolina.  All Tropical Storm watches and warnings were discontinued for the entire State of Florida at 1100 EDT earlier today.

SUMMARY OF ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS AS OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC

LOCATION…32.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

DISCUSSION

The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT on Tropical Storm Isaias, “Isaias is now moving north-northeastward 015/14 kt. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias continuing to gradually accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward for the next 36 hours ahead of a powerful deep-layer trough and associated cold front. The cyclone should make landfall later this evening near the South Carolina-North Carolina border, and then accelerate north-northeastward at 25-30 kt across eastern North Carolina early Tuesday, eastern Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula Tuesday afternoon, and into New England Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies very close to a blend of the tightly packed multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Satellite animation and special 1800Z upper-air soundings indicate that the vertical shear across Isaias has weakened and has also become more southwesterly, which better aligns with the forecast track. Given this and the improved structure of the system, Isaias is still expected to strengthen and regain hurricane status before making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane in terms of impacts.

After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to interaction with an unusually strong 100-120 kt jetstream. The expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias’ circulation intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

All tropical storm watches, tropical storm warnings, hurricane watches, or hurricane warnings have been discontinued for the entire State of Florida as of 1100 EDT today.   Just continue to stay closely tuned to the any advisories that are issued on Tropical Storm Isaial and the Topical Weather Outlook issued four times daily by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/301451.shtml?

Due to discontinuance of all tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, this will be last WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN issued for Tropical Storm Isaias.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS – 1800 EDT – 8/02/20

The following is the latest advisory on Tropical Storm Isaias.  Isaias has remained a strong tropical storm since yesterday due to continuing nearly 30 MPH wind shear.  Isaias is expected to remain a strong Tropical Storm before eventually making landfall somewhere in the Carolina’s in approximately 36-48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 410 MI…660 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

DISCUSSION

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT on Hurricane Isaias, “The earlier intense recent burst has waned since this morning, but the large convective cell has persisted…the cyclone has become more steady state with Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicating surface winds in the 56-63 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity of 60 kt is an average of these values.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is still moving toward the north-northwest or 345/08 kt. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias moving north-northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge tonight and turning northward by Monday morning, all the while remaining offshore of the coast from east-central Florida to Georgia. By Monday night, Isaias is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate toward the Carolinas, reaching the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and New England by early Wednesday. The new NHC forecast track during the first 24 hours lies a little east of the previous one, but is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track thereafter, and lies close to the various consensus models, which are lightly packed around the previous NHC foreast.

Isaias will continue to move slowly over the warm Gulfstream waters for the next 36 h or so. Despite unfavorable vertical shearconditions of around 25 kt, Isaias is expected to maintain its current intensity until landfall, and could restrengthen to hurricane status in 24-36 h when the vertical shear vector is forecast to switch from westerly to southwesterly which would align the shear along the direction of storm motion. Some baroclinic interaction is expected on days 2-3 when Isaias will move into the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak, which is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model, which agree well with the GFS and ECMWF model intensity forecasts.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of press time, there are no tropical storm watches, tropical storm warnings, hurricane watches, or hurricane warnings for any counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  As of press time, there still have not been any requests for activation by any of our served agencies in any of our ten counties nor are any anticipated at this time.  As Tropical Storm Isaias is now beginning to pull away from the ARRL West Central Florida Section, the threat to our area will begin to diminsh.  All SKYWARN trained operators should monitor for any advisories, watch, or warnings that may be issued in relation to any potential threats from severe weather.  Continue to stay closely tuned to the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/301451.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS – 1800 EDT – 8/01/20

The following is the latest advisory on Tropical Storm Isaias.  Isaias has temporarily weakened from a category 1 hurricane to a strong tropical storm.  Isaias is expected to re-strengthen to a Hurricane before reaching its nearest point to the Florida East Coast.

SUMMARY OF ADVISORY – TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS – 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…25.1N 78.7W
ABOUT 115 MI…185 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT on Hurricane Isaias, “The last data received from a previous Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with recent satellite and radar imagery, indicate that Isaias has weakened to a tropical storm due
to a combination of shear, dry air and interaction with Andros Island earlier today. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on SFMR surface wind speeds of near 60 kt in the northeastern quadrant on the last flight. A new reconnaissance mission into the cyclone is currently ongoing and will provide new data concerning the Isaias’ intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. After making a slight west-northwestward jog a few hours ago after convection significantly weakened, Isaias appears to have returned to its base northwestward course. The new NHC model guidance is tightly packed but has shifted slightly westward, with some of the more reliable models now showing landfall along the east-central Florida coast in about 24 hours. Earlier NOAA G-IV jet dropsonde data and 12Z upper-air data reveal that the surface to 700 mb ridge extending east-west across central and northern Florida remains intact whereas the 500-300 mb ridge has completely eroded. The result is that lower level ridge will cause Isaias to slow its forward motion to northwestward at 6-8 kt during the next 36 hours. By 48 hours, the erosion of the ridge due to an approaching shortwave trough will
allow the cyclone to move northward, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed toward the northeast on days 3-5. The new NHC track
forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the previous forecast after 36 hours.

A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result, Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by the HWRF and HMON model fields. By 36 hours and beyond, the global models are in good agreement that an approaching mid- to upper-level trough will increase southwesterly vertical wind shear, which should result in gradual weakening until Isais becomes an extratropical cyclone in about 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HMON in 12 hours and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models after 36 hours…”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of press time, there are no tropical storm watches, tropical storm warnings, hurricane watches, or hurricane warnings for any counties in the ARRL West Central Florida Section.  As of press time, there still have not been any requests for activation by any of our served agencies in any of our ten counties nor are any anticipated at this time.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should continue to stay in contact with their respective leadership in case emergency communications services via amateur radio are required.   All SKYWARN trained operators should monitor for any advisories, watch, or warnings that may be issued in relation to any potential threats from severe weather.  Continue to stay closely tuned to the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Latest National Hurricane Center Information:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/301451.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1700 EDT advisory unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

HURRICANE ISAIAS – 1800 EDT – 7/31/20

The following is the latest advisory on Hurricane Isaias.  Isaias was declared a Hurricane on Friday July 31, 2020 at 0000 EDT.  The first Tropical Storm Warnings for the State of Florida were issued for portions of the Florida East Coast at 1700 EDT on Thursday July 30, 2020.

The following is the summary of the National Hurricane Center Advisory #9 issued at 1800 EDT on Friday July 31, 2020:

SUMMARY OF ADVISORY – 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…22.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 195 MI…320 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 330 MI…535 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.27 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida, Northwestern Bahamas, Southeastern Bahamas, and the entral Bahamas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida, Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida, and Lake Okeechobee.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday.

DISCUSSION:

The following excerpt is from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT on Hurricane Isaias, “The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave trough over the central United States moving a little slower into the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated. The UKMET and ECMWF explicitly show Isaias making landfall in 36-48 hours along the southeast Florida coast, but appear to weaken the system below hurricane strength. The GFS similarly brings the cyclone close to the southeast and east-central Florida coasts, but also as a somewhat weaker system. In the 48 to 60-hour period, the cyclone is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward and northward through a break in the subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. By that time, however, Isaias is expected to weaken below hurricane strength due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and interaction the Florida peninsula. Around 72 hours, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward and possibly strengthen some before passing over eastern North Carolina on day 4, and across eastern New England on day 5. The NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA and is east of the UKMET and ECMWF with the system forecast to be stronger than those models indicate. Due to the westward shift in the NHC forecast track, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for portions of the Florida east coast.”

SITUATION AND ACTIONS:

As of press time, there still have not been any requests for activation by any of our served agencies in any of our ten counties.   All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should continue to stay in contact with their respective leadership in case emergency communications services via amateur radio are required.   All SKYWARN trained operators should monitor for any advisories, watch, or warnings that may be issued in relation to any potential threats from severe weather.  Continue to stay closely tuned to the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Latest National Hurricane Center Information:

Public Advisories:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Advisory:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/301450.shtml?
Forecast Discussion:  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/301451.shtml?

The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued tomorrow following the 1100 EDT advisory unless conditions warrant a sooner release.

END OF PRESS RELEASE