Author: Darrell Davis KT4WX

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected
later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday and Thursday night.  Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).  The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

According to the latest Forecast Discussion issued by the National Hurricane the following is stated, “As Dorian moves near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time, increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size. The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to amplify a deep-layer trough along the  east coast of the United States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours, followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours, closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF models.  Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian’s wind field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the Florida east coast.

The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.  Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for Martin County all the way up to South Santee River, South Carolina.  Storm Surge Watches are in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina all the way up to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.   Hurricane Warnings are in effect for Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, Volusia, Flager, and St. John’s Counties and for parts of the coast of South Carolina.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Coastal Palm Beach, Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Lake, eastern Marion, Putnam, eastern Clay, Duval, and Nassau County and for numerous Georgia coastal counties up to South Santee, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Watch continues for Polk County, Highlands County and Lake Okeechobee.and from South Santee River, South Carolina all the way to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

Late this morning, the three ARRL Florida Section ARES organizations held another conference call to continue coordination of preparedness activities for amateur radio emergency communications.  Another conference call is scheduled for tomorrow morning following the 1100 EDT advisory to assess the situation at that point.  The online Florida ARES Operator Application is still available if anyone wishes to apply to provide mutual aid outside of their own county, if at a later time that aid may be needed.  The form will state the qualifications necessary to apply.  The form is Google Docs form and is located at Florida ARES Operator Application. At the present time, applications are limited to amateur radio operators in the State of Florida.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section is returning to a Level 3 Activation which is a Stand by level.  Highlands County Emergency Management at approximately 1245 hours gave instructions to close shelters and Highlands County ARES was in the process of standing down.  Hardee County and Polk County EOC’s are in partial activation mode and are not contemplating opening shelters at this time but are standing by in case the need arises to open shelters.  The Florida Tri-Section ARES Net is now in operation on 3950 KHz or 7242 KHz, dependent upon propagation, and another net on statewide SARNET repeater system is in operation.   The hours of these nets may be modified on short notice to fit the situation.  Once the hours change another WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN will be issued to disseminate those changes.  Ben Henley KI4IGX, our Section Emergency Coordinator, and his staff are continuing to closely monitor the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators and the State EOC. Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Management offices.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are requested to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.  As we have seen, the risk to the ARRL West Central Florida Section may be reduced, at the moment, but it is by no means past and can change at any time.  All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should continue to stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate. Please do not self-deploy as there is a procedure in place to be considered for deployment.  If you wish to be considered for deployment, you may fill out the Florida ARES Operator at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfDALiPFgt8cqPEyvIuY_2jJMgxyN8s_kOZqRBfEhMDOWmPSg/viewform.  The qualifications for deployment are listed on the form.  Once a request is entered into the State EOC system, the three Section Emergency Coordinators working together will go through the lists of applicants to see who can be deployed, as the applicants must meet the qualifications set by the State of Florida Division of Emergency Management.

The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

THE WCF PRESSER ISSUE #41 SEPTEMBER 2019 IS NOW PUBLISHED

The WCF PRESSER Issue #41 September 2019, has been published on the Section website.  An announcement of the publication of the WCF PRESSER will be disseminated on the ARRL remailer shortly. If anyone has any information that is amateur radio related that you would like to go into the next issue of THE WCF PRESSER, please send that to our newsletter editor, Jim Weslager K3WR via email at weslager@gmail.com.

For the PDF version of this newsletter and past issues in PDF format go to http://arrlwcf.org/home/the-wcf-section-presser-arrl-west-central-florida-section-news/.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

The Florida Tri-Section ARES Net, will begin operation on Tuesday at 0800 and will run for 24 hours until the threat from Hurricane Dorian is diminished.  The Florida Tri-Section ARES Net is looking for volunteers to serve at net control and relay stations for the HF net on 3950 KHz or 7242 KHz.  By agreement between the three ARRL Florida Section, each day one ARRL Section will take it turn staffing the net control and relay time slots. Each net control time slot is two hours.  The Northern Florida Section will start the net on 9/03/19, the West Central Florida Section will provide net services on 9/04/19, and the Southern Florida Section will provide net services on 9/05/19.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section will provide Net Control operators from 0800 Wednesday 9/04/19 until 0800 Thursday, 9/05/19.  To facilitate the scheduling we have created a Google Docs spreadsheet for signup.  Operating times are broken up into two hour time slots and setup for a primary and 3 backup/relay stations.  There are some NCS slots still available and numerous relay slots.  Relay stations will be very useful to hear stations that the net control cannot hear as is often the nature of 40 Meters and 75 Meters.  Once a volunteer has entered their information they should exit the sheet so that it is not being locked by any one given person.  All net control and relay operators please use the ICS-214 & 309 forms to document their time/activities and to log any communications.  After the Florida Tri-Section ARES Net is concluded, instructions will be given as to where and how copies of the ICS214 and ICS309 are to be sent.

END OF BULLETIN

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.3 West, or about 110 miles east of West Palm Beach. Dorian is moving very slowly toward the  west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).  The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The following is from the 1100 EDT Forecast Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center, ”
As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.  The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.  By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian’s wind field is predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer to the east coast of Florida even if the track does not change.” So many people is getting stress due to this hurricane but they need to be aware of what is happening, that is why doctors are suggesting people to use cbd gummies to relieve stress and promote relaxation.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Polk County
* Highlands County

Late this morning, the three ARRL Florida Section ARES organizations held another conference call to continue coordination of preparedness activities for amateur radio emergency communications.  Another conference call is scheduled for tomorrow morning following the 1100 EDT advisory to assess the situation at that point.  The online Florida ARES Operator Application is still available if anyone wishes to apply to provide mutual aid outside of their own county, if at a later time that aid may be needed.  The form will state the qualifications necessary to apply.  The form is Google Docs form and is located at Florida ARES Operator Application. At the present time, applications are limited to amateur radio operators in the State of Florida.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section is once again at Level 2 Activation which is a partial activation level.  Highlands County Emergency Management opened four shelters and Highlands County ARES is providing auxiliary communications for those shelters.   Hardee County and Polk County EOC’s are in partial activation mode and contemplating opening shelters but have not made the decision to do so at this time.   The Florida Tri-Section ARES Net that was scheduled to commence on 3950 KHz or 7242 KHz, dependent upon propagation, and another net on statewide SARNET repeater system has been postponed until 0800 tomorrow morning, 9/02/19.   Ben Henley KI4IGX, our Section Emergency Coordinator, and his staff are continuing to closely monitor the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators and the State EOC. Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Management offices.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are requested to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should continue to stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate.  Any equipment checks, supply replenishment, and or home mitigation activities should already be at completion.  As we have seen, the risk to the ARRL West Central Florida Section may be reduced, at the moment, but it is by no means past and can change at any time.

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The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

At 1700 EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located about 175 miles east of West Palm Beach. Dorian is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motions should continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).  The last minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 26.88 inches (910 mb).

The following information is from the 1700 EDT Forecast Discussion, “Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over the eastern United States deepens. The current forecast is not very different from the previous one, and it is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula.  Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast.”

Since this time yesterday, due to the approach of Hurricane Dorian, the following watches and warnings have been issued by the National Hurricane Center this morning and added to this afternoon:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line (Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard Counties).

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana (Broward County).
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line (Volusia County).

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line (Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard Counties).

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet (Palm Beach County).
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line (Volusia County).

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet (Palm Beach County).

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach (Broward County).
* Lake Okeechobee.
* Polk County.
* Highlands County.

Late this morning, the three ARRL Florida Section ARES organizations held another conference call to continue coordination of preparedness activities for amateur radio emergency communications.  Another conference call is scheduled for tomorrow morning following the 1100 EDT advisory to assess the situation at that point.  The online Florida ARES Operator Application is still available if anyone wishes to apply to provide mutual aid outside of their own county, if at a later time that aid may be needed.  The form will state the qualifications necessary to apply.  The form is Google Docs form and is located at Florida ARES Operator Application. At the present time, applications are limited to amateur radio operators in the State of Florida.

The ARRL West Central Florida Section is at a Level 3 Activation which is a stand by mode.    Highlands County Emergency Management is scheduling to open four shelters tomorrow and has requested Highlands County ARES to provide auxiliary communications for those shelters.   The ARRL West Central Florida Section will move back to a Level 2 activation, once Highlands County ARES commences operations.  Several other county emergency management agencies are closely monitoring and evaluating the situation to see if they will have to commence opening hurricane shelters either for their own population or for evacuees from the Florida east coast.  Tomorrow afternoon, per the request of the State EOC, a HF net will be activated on 3950 KHz or 7242 KHz (depending upon band conditions) to coordinate the communications response.  Also the State EOC requested a net to be activated on the statewide SARNET repeater system.  Ben Henley KI4IGX, our Section Emergency Coordinator, and his staff are continuing to closely monitor the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators and the State EOC. Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Management offices.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are requested to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should continue to stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are highly encouraged to do any final checks on your equipment and supplies in case your group is requested to activate.  Also everyone is highly encourage to bring to completion any preparedness activities on your personal property as soon as possible.  As we have seen, the risk to the ARRL West Central Florida Section may be reduced, at the moment, but it is by no means past and can change at any time.

The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

END OF BULLETIN

At 1100 EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was located about 415 miles east of West Palm Beach.  Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).  The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance planes was 27.91 inches (945 mb).

The following is noteworthy from the 1100 EDT Forecast Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center, “Most of the global models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one, and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the track during future forecast cycles.”

Early this morning, a Florida Tri-Section ARES Net was conducted on 3940 KHz around 0800 this morning so EOC’s had opportunities to test their HF antennas and for everyone to touch base with each other.  The net was delayed due to the propagation delay, as the band did not shorten up until about 0740 EDT.  Late this morning, the three ARRL Florida Section ARES organizations held another conference call to continue coordination of preparedness activities for amateur radio emergency communications.  Another conference call is scheduled for tomorrow morning following the 1100 EDT advisory to assess the situation at that point.  The online Florida ARES Operator Application is still available if anyone wishes to apply to provide mutual aid outside of their own county, if at a later time that aid may be needed.  The form will state the qualifications necessary to apply.  The form is Google Docs form and is located at Florida ARES Operator Application. At the present time, applications are limited to amateur radio operators in the State of Florida.

Also the ARRL West Central Florida Section is going down to a Level 3 Activation which is a stand by mode.  Hillsborough County ARES/RACES received permission to stand down this morning and had an excellent write up on the Hillsborough County government website at  https://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/en/newsroom/2019/08/30/in-emergencies-volunteer-amateur-radio-operators-fill-vital-roles.  Several other counties that were planning activations have put those plans on hold for another 24 hours, due to the shift of the forecast track of Hurricane Dorian shifting significantly to the east in the last 24 hours.  Ben Henley KI4IGX, and his staff are continuing to closely monitoring the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators and the State EOC. Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Management offices.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are requested to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should continue to stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are highly encouraged to do any final checks on your equipment and supplies in case your group is requested to activate.  Also everyone is highly encourage to continue any preparedness activities on your personal property as soon as possible.  However do not let your guard down.  The danger to the area may be reduced at this time, but we are not out of risk or danger for the next several days, although the outlook is better than it was this time yesterday.

The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

END OF BULLETIN

SPECIAL FLORIDA TRI-SECTION ARES NET SCHEDULED FOR 8/31/19

Tomorrow morning, Saturday August 31, 2019, at 0730 or immediately following the Florida Phone Traffic Net, there will be conducted a special Florida Tri-Section ARES Net.  The purpose of this special Florida Tri-Section ARES Net is to allow those EOC’s with HF antennas to test their HF antenna installations. The net control will be Randy Payne K4EZM, an Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator for the ARRL West Central Florida Section and EC for Highlands County.  Per the discussion on the Florida Tri-Section ARES conference call yesterday, it was decided to expand the net from a Section ARES Net to encompass all three Florida ARRL Sections.  The net is specifically for Section level officials, elected or appointed, and ECs, but other amateurs are invited to participate. Format of the net will be taking check ins by sections. The primary point is to see if we are able to communicate all across the state. It will also be an opportunity for SECs to share any information that they may have for the group.

END OF PRESS RELEASE

At 1100 EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located about 660 east of West Palm Beach.  Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and continue
into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern
Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida peninsula late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and it will remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula into early next week.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).  The estimated minimum central pressure from the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

The following is noteworthy from the 1100 EDT Forecast Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center, “As the upper-low over Cuba moves westward and a strong subtropical ridge builds over the
western Atlantic as indicated by global models, the hurricane should be forced to turn west-northwestward and westward on a track toward the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is forecast to erode and the steering currents will weaken, resulting in Dorian slowing down considerably near and over the Florida peninsula. This increases
the uncertainty in the track forecast during the 4- to -5 day period, and also will lead to a prolonged duration of wind, storm surge, and rainfall. The official forecast has been very consistent so far, and this one is very similar to the previous NHC forecast. It follows the multi-model and corrected consensus,
and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.”

Yesterday, Governor DeSantis issued Executive Order 19-190, expanding the state of emergency to include all 67 counties in Florida. This provides state and local governments ample time, resources and flexibility to prepare as the exact landfall location of Hurricane Dorian continues to fluctuate.  Today, Governor Ron DeSantis sent a letter to President Donald Trump formally requesting that he declare a pre-landfall disaster as Florida prepares for Hurricane Dorian. Current forecasts project Hurricane Dorian will hit the East Coast of Florida as a major hurricane, possibly as strong as a Category 4. The Pre-Landfall Declaration request is for all 67 counties in Florida.

Yesterday evening, the three ARRL Florida Section ARES organizations held a conference call to begin coordination of preparedness activities for amateur radio emergency communications.  As agreed to on the conference call their was established an online Florida ARES Operator Application.  The Florida ARRL sections of Northern Florida, Southern Florida and West Central Florida are now requesting operator assistance for Hurricane Dorian.  To qualify you must have completed IS-100, IS-200, IS-700 and IS-800 and have completed a background check.  You must be able to be 100% self-sufficient. You must have to bring your food, water, equipment, clothing, tools, tent, sleeping bag, and any other personal items and their is an equipment requirement list on the application as well.  The form is Google Docs form and is located at Florida ARES Operator Application. At the present time, applications are limited to amateur radio operators in the State of Florida.

Also the ARRL West Central Florida Section is going to a Level 2 Activation which is a partial activation, due to the activation of ARES operators for Hillsborough County ARES/RACES. Ben Henley KI4IGX, and his staff are continuing to closely monitoring the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators and the State EOC. Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Management offices.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are requested to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are highly encouraged to do any final checks on your equipment and supplies in case your group is requested to activate. Also everyone is highly encourage to continue any preparedness activities on your personal property as soon as possible.

The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

At 1100 EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located about 220 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).  The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 29.12 inches of mercury or 986 mb.

A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.  The following is noteworthy from the 1100 Forecast Discussion issued by the National Hurricane Center, “The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.  It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.”

Yesterday afternoon at 1400 EDT, Governor Ron DeSantis issued Executive Order Executive Order 19-189, declaring a state of emergency for counties in the path of Hurricane Dorian, which includes Highlands County in the ARRL West Central Florida Section. The Governor is urging all Floridians on the East Coast to prepare for impacts, as the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center project Hurricane Dorian will make landfall on Florida’s East Coast as a major hurricane.  By declaring a state of emergency, Governor DeSantis is ensuring that state and local governments have ample time, resources and flexibility to prepare. The State Emergency Operations Center went to a Level 2 activation this morning, enhancing the coordination between federal, state and local emergency management agencies.  To read more about the State EOC activation status go to https://floridadisaster.org/state-eoc/.

At this time, ARRL West Central Florida Section ARES will go to a Level 3 activation, which is a standby status.  Our Section Emergency Coordinator, Ben Henley KI4IGX, and his staff are closely monitoring the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators and the State EOC.  A statewide conference call is planned this evening between all three ARRL Florida Section ARES programs to coordinate operations.   At the present time, Hillsborough County ARES/RACES is partially activated and plans to go to a full activation on Friday as their Emergency Management office is planning on opening shelters for evacuees from the Florida east coast.  Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Management offices.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are requested to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are highly encouraged to do any final checks on your equipment and supplies in case your group is requested to activate. Also everyone is highly encourage to continue any preparedness activities on your personal property as soon as possible.

The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

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At 1100 hours, the center of Tropical Storm Dorian waslocated about 25 miles southeast of St. Croix, in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 miles per hour, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track,  Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 miles per hour with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles primarily to the east of the center.  An Air Force plane just estimated a minimum central pressure of 29.50 inches of mercury.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for, Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the parts of the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana.  The following is the longer term outlook according to the forecast discussion issued at 1100, “The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States.”

The State EOC is at a Level 3 Activation, which is a monitoring status.  For more information and status reports on activities you may go to https://floridadisaster.org/state-eoc/.  Our Section Emergency Coordinator, Ben Henley KI4IGX, and his staff are closely monitoring the situation and are staying in communications with our local ARES Emergency Coordinators.   Our ARES Emergency Coordinators are staying in close communications with their respective Emergency Managment offices.  At the present time we have still not had any requests to activate any ARES or CERT groups from any of our county emergency management offices or any other served agencies.

All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are request to continue to closely monitor the latest advisories by the National Hurricane Center in Miami. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups should stay in communication with their respective leadership for their groups in case that group is requested to activate. All ARES, ACS, and CERT groups personnel are highly encouraged to do any final checks on your equipment and supplies in case your group is requested to activate. Also everyone is highly encourage to continue any preparedness activities on your personal property as soon as possible.

The next WCF Section Special Bulletin will be issued following the 1100 advisory tomorrow unless conditions warrant a bulletin to be issued sooner.

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