TROPICAL STORM LAURA – 1800 EDT – 8/22/20
With this advisory, the ARRL West Central Florida Section commences WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN releases on the latest status of Tropical Storm Laura, which was upgraded from Tropical Depression Thirteen yesterday, Friday August 21, 2020.
Tropical Storm Laura remains on a steady westerly track going around the periphery of the western Atlantic high pressure ridge which is now in the strengthening phase and thus is keeping Tropical Storm Laura away from the State of Florida at the present time. The forecast track has shifted consistently south of the State of Florida for two days.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm condition
The following excerpts are from the Forecast Discussion issued at 1700 EDT on Tropical Storm Laura, “A couple of hours ago an observing site on the southeast coast of Puerto Rico, Las Mareas, reported sustained winds of 52 kt. These winds were apparently associated with a mesocyclone embedded within the larger-scale circulation and not representative of the intensity of the tropical storm. Scatterometer data and WSR-88D Doppler velocities from San Juan support an intensity of 45 kt. Since the center should be moving over land for the next 48 hours or so, no additional intensification is anticipated until Monday night when the center moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Over warm waters, with anticipated weak vertical shear, and anticyclonic flow aloft, Laura will likely strengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus, but given the possibility of a favorable upper-air environment over the Gulf, this forecast could be conservative. At this time it does not seem likely that Marco, which is forecast to make landfall on the north-central Gulf coast a day or two earlier than Laura, should have much of an influence on the latter system.
Center locations from earlier scatterometer data, low-cloud motions, and Dvorak fixes from both TAFB and SAB, give a motion of about 280/16 kt. Laura should move west-northwestward along the southern side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered near the southeastern U.S. coast through 72 hours. Then, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward to northward on the western side of the high. The official track forecast is on the right side of the track guidance suite.”
SITUATION AND ACTIONS:
At the present time there are no Tropical Storm Warnings for the State of Florida. There are Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay only. This watch will no doubt be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning as Laura approaches the Florida Keys.
As of press time, only one county in the ARRL West Central Florida Section has an ARES group on a Level 3 activation, which is a stand by mode: Manatee County. As of press time, there are no other ARES groups on any activation level. All ARES, ACS, and CERT personnel should continue to monitor the latest National Hurricane Center advisories on Tropical Storm Laura while the storm is in close proximity to the State of Florida.
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION:
Public Advisories: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/222347.shtml
Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/222051.shtml?
Forecast Discussion: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222052.shtml?
The next WCF SECTION SPECIAL BULLETIN on Tropical Storm Laura will be issued following the 1700 EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Laura unless conditions warrant a sooner release.